Watching Earl

By now, most everyone has heard the news about Hurricane Earl. Don't blame me for the over hype by the news. It is already a lead story both in the newspapers and on tv. It is still much too early for this kind of attention but naturally that won't stop the extra attention.

For now, it is still too soon to pin down an exact track. The map below shows the latest model forecast tracks as of 8PM tonight.


You can see that there is still a wide range of error. Really a difference of several hundred miles between both extreme model runs. That means that the computer models have not come to a consensus over the two main steering players.

Here is the latest hurricane center path for Earl.

The bottom line is that this is a storm that we all need to watch. There should be a better idea about what if any impact that the storm has on New England. At the very least, there will be very strong rip tides and large waves battering the coast all weekend as Earl approaches Friday night. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of south shore and Cape Cod beaches get closed for the weekend.

Don't buy into any over hype just yet. Wait until tomorrow night, around the 11PM hurricane center update. By then, we will know if Friday night will mean heavy rainy bands and hurricane force winds or intermittent rain with just gusty winds. Stay tuned!