Snow Coming! I think.....

I must say that I am extremely happy to finally have a snow storm to talk about. This winter has been agonizingly boring. That being said, this potential snowfall on Saturday snuck up on us and is proving to be difficult to forecast.

The Deets:

A relatively strong cold front will be heading our way on Friday night, shown in the image below. This cold front will mark the beginning of some very cold air that will be settling over New England on Sunday courtesy of an Arctic High sitting over Eastern Canada. Now by itself, this front wouldn't be a problem. In fact, up until this morning, most models had the front touching off a few snow showers but that's it.
Starting this morning, the models started to indicate that the cold front was going to pick up a piece of weak energy moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico, shown on the upper level map below. At this point, it seems very likely that the storm from the Gulf will get swept up by the cold front and actually stall the front. A new Low should will redevelop and quickly intesify. There is not much agreement on where this new storm will form as of right now. And we all know that location makes all the difference in the world with winter storms!

The thinking right now is that it should be cold enough for all snow everywhere, except for a some rain to start on the Cape. The new storm should begin to affect us by Saturday morning and last through the day on Saturday. Totals are up in the air right now but early estimates put 4-8 inches on the South Shore and the Cape (early rain shouldn't matter much) , 2-4 around Boston and inside of 495, 1-3 to the points north and west. Winds will be very gusty as the low rapidly strengthens. It will be a quick mover and should be in the Gulf of Maine by Saturday night.

Of course, this storm hasn't even formed yet and all caution is advised for a large bust potential! There was no real indication of this type of event until this morning and as I mentioned before, it all depends on where the secondary storm develops and how much heavy moisture it can throw back our way. Tonight's model runs will be very interesting to watch for.