Pattern Shifting Back to Stormy Next Week

We can all agree that the weather around here over the last month has been quite varied and even extreme. Two powerful storms have left their toll over the Northeast, with the effects of Sandy likely to be felt for many more months.

A nice reprieve was in order this past weekend, with a true "Indian Summer" occurring on both Sunday and Monday. Despite a raw day today, tranquil weather awaits us for the rest of the week. Strong high pressure will dominate our weather from Wednesday-Saturday, with very seasonable conditions but plenty of sunshine.

As we look at next week, which of course is the busiest travel week of the year, we are starting to see indications that the East coast will return to a more stormy pattern. Our main source of concern is what we call a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

Many of you heard this referenced when Sandy was making her way up the coast. Indeed, a negative NAO correlates to more atmospheric blocking which generally results in a tilted jet stream that allows storms to travel along or close to the coast. 

The image above shows that indeed the NAO appears to be heading to a big negative phase after November 16th. And some of our long term models are picking this up and hinting at 2 possible coastal storms on the week of Thanksgiving.

There is no details to give as this is WAY to far out to try and forecast specifics. But these large scale indices like the NAO are becoming more vital and more accurate at predicting large swings in the atmosphere's flow.

Just something to keep in the back of your mind if you have travel plans next week!