Tuesday Soaker. Severe Weather This Afternoon?

Boston is currently under a Flash Flood Warning until 3PM this afternoon. A warm front sitting right over Massachusetts is providing the prefect breeding ground for heavy downpours to develop and drop torrential rains over the area.

Dew points are very high (mid 70's) and the precipitable water values (how much moisture is in the air) are also extremely high. All signs point to a lot of rain falling over the next few hours in eastern MA. We just had 1.30 inches of rain in 15 min here in West Roxbury. Totals like that will cause street flooding fast which is the reason for the Flash Flood Warning.

For now, heavy rain is our problem. As we move towards the afternoon, severe weather may be in the works for parts of the region. The atmosphere remains very unstable and with a warm front providing the perfect boundary for development, expect to see more storms later this afternoon. Daytime heating (albeit limited today) will provide an extra boost for these storms, increasing the possibility of damaging straight line winds and even some rotation.

Short range models show a strong line of storms developing by 4/5 this afternoon.

 

The SPC has also put us under an increased chance for rotating storms and weak tornado development. I doubt we see any tornadoes, but with such a juicy atmosphere and a low ceiling height, I do believe we may see a tornado watch or even warning issued at some point this afternoon. 

I will keep you posted!