6:30 Storm Update

Previous forecast is generally on track. Some of the higher resolution model runs from the afternoon continue to push for a warmer solution with the storm track. At this point, will have to just wait and see. The time has come to stop watching models and start watching conditions!

Taking a look at current surface temps across the region, you can clearly see where ocean influenced warming has already occurred. Cold air is fully entrenched away from the coast. And despite the low level warming this afternoon, even cold air at the coast will be hard to eject at the onset of the storm.

It appears more likely now that everyone will see a changeover by tomorrow morning as mid level warming becomes too much to sustain any frozen precipitation at the surface. The biggest question at this point is what time does this happen?

Here we see the 1am projected radar. Heavy snow extends from south shore all the way into northern New England. But that 32 degree line is oh so close to the city! This 1-4am time frame is when we will experience our heaviest precipitation rates. So a change over closer to 1am means less snow. A changeover closer to 4am will mean more snow, potentially significantly more snow considering the rate.

Need to keep an eye on NYC to see what time they transition. Also need to closely watch secondary low development and wind direction over the next 6 hours. As for now, keeping my snowfall map the same