23 Days above 90 degrees!

And by the time we get through Thursday, it will be 25 days at 90 or above in the city of Boston. The normal value is 14 days. Certainly has been a hot and dry summer!

Watching Earl

By now, most everyone has heard the news about Hurricane Earl. Don't blame me for the over hype by the news. It is already a lead story both in the newspapers and on tv. It is still much too early for this kind of attention but naturally that won't stop the extra attention.

For now, it is still too soon to pin down an exact track. The map below shows the latest model forecast tracks as of 8PM tonight.


You can see that there is still a wide range of error. Really a difference of several hundred miles between both extreme model runs. That means that the computer models have not come to a consensus over the two main steering players.

Here is the latest hurricane center path for Earl.

The bottom line is that this is a storm that we all need to watch. There should be a better idea about what if any impact that the storm has on New England. At the very least, there will be very strong rip tides and large waves battering the coast all weekend as Earl approaches Friday night. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of south shore and Cape Cod beaches get closed for the weekend.

Don't buy into any over hype just yet. Wait until tomorrow night, around the 11PM hurricane center update. By then, we will know if Friday night will mean heavy rainy bands and hurricane force winds or intermittent rain with just gusty winds. Stay tuned!

The Last Heat Wave of the Summer and Earl Keeps Getting Closer and Closer

Well, my string of 3 day weekend is over and I am sad. Nothing but work and school in the future for me. Yuck! The good news for most of you though is that you have one more week of summer left, with Labor Day weekend coming up. It will also feel like summer, most likely our last heat wave until next summer.

Our current surface map shows a STRONG high pressure ridge taking hold over the whole eastern half of the country. This high pressure is not going to want to move an inch from now until Thursday. What that means for us is hot temps (low 90's), sunny days with few if any clouds and low humidity. High temperatures should reach 90 or above each day of the week through Thursday, making this an official heat wave. Humidity will be nowhere near levels that it has been this summer so expect a dry but still hot heat.

Now lets talk about Earl. All summer long, we have been waiting for the tropics to heat up and now we are in the thick of it. Several tropical waves are being fed off the African coast the last two weeks and all of them have hit favorable conditions for Hurricane development. Danielle was strong, but was pushed out to sea. Earl is becoming very strong as well, sitting just north of the US Virgin Islands as we speak.

Right now, all models have Earl tracking close to the coast, but eventually going out to sea. This consensus is changing however with each model run. Earl looks to be running into a possible "doomsday" scenario for those of us on the east coast.

With our strong high pressure cemented over the east coast, another strong sub tropical high pressure system will set up over the middle Atlantic, essentially wedging Earl in the middle and allowing him to very likely ride up the coast as a strong category 3 or 4 storm as these latest model ensembles and forecast track maps show.


Nothing is written in stone just yet, but each model run is consistently bringing the storm further west and with sea surface temps running above normal all summer, it is becoming more and more likely that a strong storm will be affecting Southern New England from Friday into Saturday. This is no exaggeration. I would keep an eye on updates all week.

Retrograding Low Pressures!

What is this, March? Sure feels likes it. We have been stuck in a nasty easterly flow for the past 2 days and we still have one more day left. If this pattern brings back memories of early spring time, you aren't far from the truth.

A combination of an upper level low over New York state and a stalled out low pressure system just south of Nantucket is the same pattern that kept eastern Mass on the warm side of late winter storms as well as the same pattern that gave us record breaking rain in March. Think of it as mother natures way of reminding you all that she is in charge and even though this "blast from the past" sticks around for a few days, keep it in mind for our Fall and early Winter seasons. Seems like we might be seeing this again.

As for tomorrow, the Low pressure system regains strength off our coast overnight as this NAM image shows. Looks like most of the heavy precip stays offshore but this is no guarantee. Don't be surprised if we have a very similar day to today.


The good news is that after tomorrow, a STRONG High Pressure system sets up shop all of next week and brings a potential heat wave to the east coast. Summer isn't over yet!

Interesting Story

Nice little piece in today's Globe about how the unusually hot and dry weather is affecting local crops in both good ways and bad ways. Quite a turn around from our wet spring. It's interesting to see how the hot and dry weather helps certain crops but kills others.

By my count, since June 1st, we have had a total of 8 Sunny Saturdays out of 11 possible Saturdays. Just a little indicator of how nice the weather has been this summer.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/08/18/hot_weather_has_mass_farms_booming/?page=1

Don't Miss The Perseides Meteor Shower!

If you get a chance, from now until Friday night, there should be some great viewing of the Perseids meteor shower. We are in a New Moon phase as well, so no moonlight pollution. Clear skies should help the cause as well. Just make sure you get outside of the city lights somewhat for the best viewing. The following is a greatexplanation from the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

The Perseids are certainly the best known, if not the most active, meteor shower of the year. The experience of watching them, however, can vary widely. Of course the local weather can make or break a shower viewing, but it's important to keep in mind that the shower occurs not just on the nights of the peak (August 12-13) but for several nights before and after. It's possible to see some Perseids as soon as July 23 and as late as August 24. Another factor is the presence of moonlight; here, prospects for the 2010 shower look favorable indeed, with a New Moon occurring just a couple of days before the peak. The Perseids happen when Earth's orbit around the Sun brings our planet in contact with debris streams left by the periodic comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. The shower profile depends on the location and density of the debris streams - a factor that is beyond our control but increasingly predictable. What IS in our control is the time of night we choose to observe (after midnight is best) and our location (a site with dark skies is preferred). Under ideal conditions this year, the Perseids should be spectacular!

Its Official, It Has Been Hot and Dry This Summer

From the NWS:

- The intense heat either tied, or shattered, July monthly temperature records in several East Coast cities. Washington D.C. recorded an average temperature of 83.1 degrees F, which tied with July 1993 as the warmest for any calendar month on record. Other July monthly temperature records were broken, or tied, in Atlantic City, N.J. and Hartford, Conn.

- It was the hottest July on record for Delaware and Rhode Island. Along the East Coast, each state from Maine to Florida ranked in their top 10 warmest. Only Montana, Idaho, and Texas had below-normal average temperatures for the month.

- The May-July period was the warmest on record for the Northeast and Southeast climate regions and was the ninth warmest for the Central region. This period produced record warmth for: New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The Northwest had its sixth coolest May-July period. Below-average temperatures were experienced in Oregon (fifth coolest), Idaho (seventh), and Montana (eighth) during the same period.

- Wisconsin had its second wettest July, while Texas had its fourth, Iowa its fifth, and Missouri its eighth. By contrast, it was the 10th driest July for Georgia and Virginia.

- Much of the Plains and Upper Midwest experienced above normal precipitation, triggered by moist tropical air that fueled widespread thunderstorms. Several of these systems stalled out and caused major flooding in some areas.

- Precipitation, when averaged across the nation, was much-above-normal, ranking as the 10th wettest May-July period. On the regional level, much of the northern tier United States was above normal. The East North Central had its second wettest May-July. Both the Central and West North Central region had their ninth wettest and the Northwest had its 10th.

- Precipitation was well below normal in Louisiana for the year-to-date period (January-July), as drought conditions continued to deteriorate. The state was more than 9.5 inches below the long-term average for the year, its seventh driest such period in 116 years. Conversely, Iowa was nearly 10 inches above average, its third wettest start to the year.

Tropics Heating Up

It's been a fairly quiet tropics season in the Atlantic so far, but favorable conditions and abnormally warm ocean temperatures could change the outlook rather quickly. As for now, there is a tropical depression that has recently formed in the Gulf. Not much expected from this storm as it won't have much time to deepen. It will likely turn into a Category 1 storm before making landfall east of New Orleans. Just heavy rain and minimal wind damage.


Here is the current Atlantic ocean temps and areas of tropical interest.

Humidity Starts Off A Stormy Week

A slow moving cold front will linger over our area for the beginning of the week keeping us in the humidity for the first few days.

On another note, the Codzilla boat in the harbor is a lot of fun but they do have a stupid skit that should probably be dropped. Katrina sure did have a good time and a lottttttttt of drinks!

Check Out The Northern Lights!

Aurora Alert: The Sun is Waking Up!
Cambridge, MA - Sky viewers might get to enjoy some spectacular Northern Lights, or aurorae, tomorrow. After a long slumber, the Sun is waking up. Early Sunday morning, the Sun's surface erupted and blasted tons of plasma (ionized atoms) into interplanetary space. That plasma is headed our way, and when it arrives, it could create a spectacular light show.

"This eruption is directed right at us, and is expected to get here early in the day on August 4th," said astronomer Leon Golub of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA). "It's the first major Earth-directed eruption in quite some time."

The eruption, called a coronal mass ejection, was caught on camera by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) - a spacecraft that launched in February. SDO provides better-than-HD quality views of the Sun at a variety of wavelengths.

"We got a beautiful view of this eruption," said Golub. "And there might be more beautiful views to come, if it triggers aurorae."

When a coronal mass ejection reaches Earth, it interacts with our planet's magnetic field, potentially creating a geomagnetic storm. Solar particles stream down the field lines toward Earth's poles. Those particles collide with atoms of nitrogen and oxygen in the atmosphere, which then glow like miniature neon signs.

Aurorae normally are visible only at high latitudes. However, during a geomagnetic storm aurorae can light up the sky at lower latitudes. Sky watchers in the northern U.S. and other countries should look toward the north on the evening of August 3rd/4th for rippling "curtains" of green and red light.

The Sun goes through a regular activity cycle about 11 years long on average. The last solar maximum occurred in 2001. Its latest minimum was particularly weak and long lasting. This eruption is one of the first signs that the Sun is waking up and heading toward another maximum.