Holler

ESSEX COUNTY...
BEVERLY 67mph 1055 PM 2/25 BVY ASOS
LAWRENCE 61mph 1104 PM 2/25 LWM ASOS

SUFFOLK COUNTY...
EAST BOSTON 60mph 1047 PM 2/25 LOGAN AIRPORT

MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CAMBRIDGE 56mph 950 PM 2/25 SPOTTER
BEDFORD 53mph 857 PM 2/25 BED ASOS


Whoaaaaa! That is a serious wind gust from last night at Logan. Tropical storm force for sure. Makes sense since we were basically sitting under the center of the storm as it got very strong. Lots of rain too. Here is some other climate data from yesterday:

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 45 1158 PM 65 1930 41 4 36
MINIMUM 37 835 AM -6 1894 26 11 22
AVERAGE 41 34 7 29

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 1.28 2.15 1981 0.12 1.16 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 3.27 2.94 0.33 1.75
SINCE DEC 1 10.09 10.59 -0.50 12.45
SINCE JAN 1 6.18 6.86 -0.68 5.35


I suspect we ended up with more than 1.28 inches of rain in the end, but so muc for that drought we were in. Notice that despite our missing pretty much every big snow storm this winter, we are actually still above average for seasonal snowfall right now.

This weekend will be crappy and not just because I have to work all weekend. It will be cloudy with intermitent showers and snow showers.

I would also like to point out that I am extrememly dissapointed in the celtics for sucking so much. I have no hope for success in the playoffs. They are the worst.

I am hungry right now, so I think I will eat my Lean Cuisine meal. Allison says that drinking lattes and eating lean cuisine makes me a girl but I think that Allison is stupid.

UGGHHHH

I woke up too late to write an extended piece on this storm! Too bad because it is very interesting. Basically, we are used to seeing storms track up the east coast and you always hear that if it stays far enough to the east, we get snow. Closer to the coast, we get rain.

This storm is going to get VERY big in Long Island Sound and provide Philly, NJ and even NYC with some good snow totals. So you would expect us to get snow too right? Wrong. This storm is going to stop all northern movement and actually get "sucked" back west by our little stalled out upper level Low. Very unusual. Because it of this, the storm actually makes a 90 degree turn and tracks up the Hudson river valley leaving all everything to the east of that point on the warm easterly flow of the storm. Lots of rain. And I do mean lots.

We will see big time downpours later on this evening. Anywhere from 5-7pm. Could even get some thunder as this storm really deepens. Winds will be very strong too. Anywhere that got snow yesterday runs the risk of some serious flooding as they will get heavy rain today.

To the west of the Hudson and also at higher elevations in western Mass, they are going to get a big time blizzard. Upwards of 1-2 feet with strong winds for upstate NY and the Green mountains in VT. We miss out again.

This storm then makes another odd move. It essentially dissipates over us. It goes from being a very strong storm to a storm that is lacking energy in a matter of 24 hours. It doesn't really move, it just dies. Most of that energy gets transfered to the upper level low which means instability for us on Friday and Saturday. Upper level storms are tricky, but essentially we could see snow showers or flurries break out at any point on both days as the cold air will be back in place.

I guess this was a long post. I am going to be late for work now. I wish people who came in for running shoes like to talk about the weather. Everybody loves to make comments about how crappy it is or about how they heard it was suppose to rain or snow, but when I get excited and start to go into details about it, they mostly just look at me like I am crazy and some sort of nerd. Bastards.

That Rain is Cold

Cold rain is the my least favorite type of weather. Really my only least favorite of anything when it comes to weather. If it is cold, I would rather it snow. Cold rain is heavier and gets me more wet and cold. And a more wet and cold Greg is a grumpy Greg. And a grumpy Greg is a Greg that is prone to complaining and also prone to referring to himself in the third person.

Anyways. While we were getting soaked here in eastern Mass, some of us were getting a hefty snowstorm. As I said yesterday, elevation was the key. Over 1000 ft, you win and your prize is 32 degree weather. Look at some of the totals:

Ashfield, MA 22 in
Plainfield, MA 20 in
Townsend, Ma 14 in
Gardner, MA 16 in
Fitchburg, MA 15 in
Worcester, MA 11 in

So basically 40 miles west and 1000 ft up from Boston, this storm was a pretty good sized snow storm. Not for us coastal folk though. I do love the snow, but I still wouldn't live in Plainfield.

The rain should taper off as the night goes on and then get ready for round 2 tomorrow afternoon. This next storm is pretty unique. We will see all rain again, but the track of the storm and its eventual demise is very unlike any storms we usually see around here.

More on that later.....

If Your High, Your Fly

That's the motto I live by and that is the golden ticket for this storm.

Timeline as follows:

This Afternoon into early Evening, expect light rain to become steady to heavy after nightfall. It is all rain for us inside of 495 and even outside of 495, only areas over 1000 ft will see snow in this portion of the storm.

Overnight, the fun begins. The rain/snow line will collapse back south as temperatures cool overnight. Probably happens after about 9pm. We could see a very slushy inch or 2 but I doubt it sticks to anything but grass and cars.

Tomorrow Morning into the Afternoon, the storm begins to get sucked back to the west by our stuck upper level Low over the Great Lakes and with that movement, the winds shift to the south and warm up all of Massachusetts and even parts of New Hampshire and Vermont. Heavy rain follows all morning into the afternoon, washing away pretty much all snow we get in the Boston area. Temps will be in the mid to low 40's.

Tomorrow Night, the rain will lessen up around midnight. After midnight, we could see some snow mixed in through Thursday morning, but no accumulation is expected.

We get a very short break on Thursday and then the next storm moves in, following pretty much the same path but this one looks to be moving a lot slower and will carry a lot more wind with it.

Our friend the sun won't be back for awhile and my cat is so upset about it that he is hiding in a brown paper bag. He hates the rain.

Enjoy the Sun today.

Because you won't see it again until possibly next Sunday.

As I mentioned yesterday, we are in for a very stormy week. The northern jet stream is essentially going to be in a traffic jam from tomorrow through Saturday due to a huge blocking pattern in the North Atlantic. This allows for an upper level low, or a storm that is very high up in our atmosphere, to get stuck over the Great Lakes and act as a "conveyor belt" for storms to develop on the east coast and get pushed up to New England.

What does this mean for us? Well, tomorrow we get storm 1 of 2 this week. This one will be messy but it really should be all rain for everyone inside of 495. The reasoning this time is not so much because of the track, because the storm actually stays off shore. But the ocean temperatures this time of the year really start to affect what type of precipitation we get. As we get closer to spring, any sort of wind of the ocean (East wind) sets up whats refereed to as the maritime affect and creates an ocean warm front and pushes temps into the mid 30's. This will be the case for us tomorrow and on Wednesday.

The storm should start out as some light snow by the late morning but will change to all rain by the afternoon into the evening. As the sun goes down tomorrow night, we could see the cold air sneak back in and change us back to a light snow but it all goes back to rain for pretty much the whole region on Wednesday as the storm gets dragged back to the east by the upper level low, we get a big rush of warm air and heavy rain as well. Could be some localized flooding by wednesday night, especially in places around the Rt 2 area and in western Mass where there is likely to be a few inches of wet snow on the ground.

We get a break from Wednesday night into most of the day on Thursday but a more interesting and much stronger storm develops Thursday night into Friday and even Saturday. No consesus on this one yet, but it looks to have a lot more cold air involved than our storm from tomorrow. It looks like it will still be too warm along the coast for snow but inland areas and Northern New England could end up with a very big snow storm. The image in this blog is of the possible set up for Friday.

Interesting Set Up Coming

So today and tomorrow look to be nice days with sunny skies and highs in the lower 40's. But after that, a very active and hard to forecast pattern sets up.

Starting on Tuesday, a Low pressure system will work up the east coast very slowly while an upper level low moves east from the great lakes and will get cut off, meaning it stalls.

This will make for a very gray and precipitation filled week for us here in Boston. As for the precipitation type? It looks to be mostly rain and mixed precip close to the coast and more of a wet snow and sleet precip type.

The yuck weather should begin sometime early Tuesday morning and really will last until Saturday. We will get breaks in the heavy stuff throughout the week and another storm appears to form in a similar manner on Thursday and possibly again on Saturday. That's what happens when you stop the movement in the upper atmosphere. Storms continue to form over our heads.

The cold weather is just not around this time though. Any area with some elevation and areas north of southern NH will get some accumulating snow but I just don't see it for the rest of us, at least with this system on Tuesday. We will jump back and forth between rain sleet and snow, but nothing will really accumulate.

I will have more later. I am working on a way to develop my own graphics so stay tuned!

Quiet for Now....

So we are in a stretch of quiet weather with sunny skies and highs in the low 40's from today until Monday. After that, we appear to be heading into a stormy stretch. It begins on Tuesday.

This time of year is always tricky with the rain/snow line so it could be a very messy few days.

Will update with more details later. The above image is from the potential set up for Wednesday. The blue 0 line is our 32 degree line and you can see that it is creeping very close to the coast.

Totals Son!

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS


Above is the link to yesterdays final snow totals. A nice little pile up. It happened very fast as well. The heavy snow band set up shop a little earlier than expected but totals were right about as predicted. Take that naysayers. No more complaining about last week. It's over.

Nice Little Storm Today

It's about time! We haven't had any type of snow storm in awhile now. Anyways, this one isn't impressive but who cares. Snow is snow and I love it as long as it doesn't ruin my basketball game later on tonight.

Light snow will taper off this morning around 10 am. From there, we enter our magical dry slot for the rest of the morning until early afternoon. Then the actual part of the storm hits. Heavy snow should overtake the area right about 5pm and sit over us for a few hours. This is when we will get all of our snow accumulation.

I have linked the map of totals that I think is the most accurate. This storm is looking a bit more traditional in that the areas north and west of the city should see the most while the south coast will see next to nothing. In the Boston area, I would expect about 4 inches but again the timing sucks, right as people are driving home.

Everything winds down late tonight. Evening commute should be a pain in the ass so beware. At least the stupid kids are on vacation this week.

PS. Lake Eire frozen over!!!! Oh my!!!

http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978050165&grpId=3659174697244816

Timeline for Tomorrow

The above image is what our radar should look like at 7am tomorrow morning. Light snow should be falling most of the morning and then it appears a dry slot will move in by about 2pm as depicted by the second image.

This dry slot will cut down on snow totals but the timing of it will most likely reduce the mixing precipitation possibility since the warmest temperatures will occur during the dry slot time period.

Later in the evening, the storm will intensify as it moves to the northeast and like most New England winter storms, pull the cold air back into the region with accompanying snow bands. I would think this would happen after dark sometime.

Not too sure on totals yet. Will post something later about that. Shouldn't be too bad though. A quick note, the above images are from the latest NAM model run, which is usually the most reliable for storms inside 24 hours.

Winter Storm Watch in Effect

From the NWS....


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

"THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 4 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OR MORE
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

IN THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
RAIN COULD MIX IN WITH THE SNOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS
ACCUMULATIONS.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SNOW WILL CONTINUE DURING TUESDAY AND MAY MIX WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IF THE STORM WERE TO
TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN THE LATEST FORECAST...A CHANGE TO RAIN FROM
BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE WOULD BE MORE CERTAIN WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS."

Track appears to have tracked further south. Totals coming later.

Monday Night/ Tuesday Snow Event

I would not be too concerned about it at this point. The NWS is holding back any advisory's at this point as the system could be a bust, much like last weeks storm. The following is an excerpt from the Taunton 7pm forecast discussion...

"GIVEN THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A 4TH PERIOD EVENT...HAVE DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW. COULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT BUST
POTENTIAL GIVEN INHERENT MARGINALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WITH WARMER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW. ALSO THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND."

Lots of insider lingo in these updates but basically what they are saying is that this storm is going to track too close to our coastline and drag in warmer air to keep the precip type as a mix or rain for most of the daytime hours on Tuesday. You can also tell that they are still feeling the fallout from last weeks mishap so they need to mention this "bust" possibility up front.

My call? I think in the Boston area (inside 128) we will see maybe 1-2 inches of wet snow starting late Monday night into early Tuesday morning and then a gradual change to a drizzle during the morning on Tuesday. We should see a change back to snow by late afternoon but it will be mostly flurries. Pretty much all snow will be washed away in our area.

After Tuesday, we will be in a stretch of very seasonable weather with no storms to speak of and high temps starting to moderate with each passing week. Since I am watching the Daytona 500 I feel a NASCAR reference is in order. We appear to be on the backstretch of winter. I know Katrina is happy to hear it.

Behind the Scenes!

In this blog I thought I would give you a quick insight into how most forecasts are compiled. This last image is from a very popular model run called the Global Forecasting System. Basically, this is a mathematical model run 4 times a day that predicts up to 16 days in advance. It uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather in advance.

This particular image is a surface map snapshot of our latest predicted model run for Tuesday. Lot of things going on here but you can see that a storm is likely to impact our area and the precipitation looks to be snow because the predicted temperatures would be below 32 degrees. Certainly not the only basis for forecasts but this gives you an little look at how the awesome weathermen do it!!!!

Dust Off Those Shovels

Looks like we are back on for Monday night into Tuesday. Here is the quick total snapshot from Accuweather. Should not be a big storm. At most, it looks like 3-6 inches in our area. Possible mixing at the coast. It's a quick mover so not enough time to dump a lot on us. More updates as we get closer.

Even the south is getting more snow than us!

So much for an El Nino year. The southern jet steam continues to supply ample amounts of moisture and of course we already know that there had been a large pool of cold air over the eastern half of the country for the past month now. Now even the southeast is getting into the mix. The above map from accuweather shows what they can expect for snowfall with this next system. 3-6 inches across this area will paralyze most locations.

Whats more, you can expect the havoc to continue with flights being canceled. Atlanta is a huge airport hub and I would anticipate them shutting down the airport once this storm hits. There have already been over 10,000 flights canceled this week because of the two east coast storms (including my brothers flight to Colorado) and that number will only get bigger.

As for us, nothing big on the horizon for the next week. We should continue with a seasonable pattern and temps in the mid 30's for highs with plenty of sunshine. As I mentioned yesterday, we had a shot at a storm next Tuesday but models were trending south as they have with every storm this winter. It looks a bit more promising today, but even if we got a direct hit, the totals would not be impressive. Storms are moving too quick right now in this overactive jet stream. The only way we ever see a huge snowstorm is usually if the storm is a long duration event and that just does not seem likely this winter. I still feel like we will get another decent storm (10 + inches) before the winter is over but I have no scientific basis for that other than I really just want one!

Mid Atlantic Gets Burried Again

While we continue to sit on the fringe of winter storms, the rest of the east coast continues to get pounded. Above is a look at the their storm totals from just this past storm. Just how historic has this been for the other major east coast cities? According to old friend Eliot Abrams, Philadelphia has received 44 inches of snow in the last 10 days. Since January 1st of 1993, Philly has received a total of 435 inches of snow. That means that in the last 10 days, Philly has gotten 10 percent of its total snowfall in the past 17 years!!! That is amazing.

As for us, we continue to get blocked from these historic storms. There doesn't seem to be one particular culprit but the main reason these past two storms missed us had to do with a strong upper level low pressure system in Nova Scotia "blocked" the systems from moving further north.

But the good news, if you like storms at least, is that the long term pattern will continue to supply us with cold air and merging jet streams. What does this mean for us? More opportunities for a big snow storm. Our next chance looked to be on Tuesday but once again, the mid atlantic looks like they will receive more snow. Some schools down there could be going to school until July 4th!

Storm Totals from Yesterday

Nothing too impressive. Certainly not what was expected. It appears Sandwich and residents of Bristol County ended up with the jackpot this time.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Today's Weather Rant

You know what I hate? People who use umbrellas in the sun and in the snow. It bothers me more than you can imagine. Its quite simple really. Umbrellas are used for rain. Nothing else. These people are trying to fuck with the rules of society and I just won't have it.

This Just In....

Words cannot describe how disappointed I am in this team. They have no finish to their games, no flow to their offense and no team defense in crucial possessions. Tonight's game was the worst I have seen them play this year. It is no longer injuries holding this team back. They just don't have any Ubuntu. I hated that stupid slogan two years ago, but now I am ready to send this team back to South Africa to pick up some more of their good fortunes. I say they go next week and skip their west coast trip. There is NO way in hell that they beat the LA,Portland and Denver in a span of 4 days. I am getting myself ready for a 30 loss season and a second round exit.

February Winter Storm: Wha Happened!?

So obviously this past winter storm was a bust, so what happened? The simple explanation is that the air at the surface was just too warm. The east wind blowing off the relatively warmer ocean kept most of eastern Massachusetts above freezing for the majority of the day, but this was hardly sole factor.

Both this storm and the last storm were very tricky to forecast. Although they were both strong with lots of moisture, they both contained a very sharp cut off from heavy snow to almost no snow. Usually, it is pretty easy to generalize snow totals for large areas, but not with these past two storms. The track and location of the heavy snow bands meant everything. The cut off from heavy snow to almost no snow was as small as 10 miles. Even with the sophisticated forecasting tools that meteorologists have these days, it is nearly impossible to predict where these heavy snow bands will set up. Again, usually its not a big deal. On snow total maps, you see something like 6-10 inches with locally up to 1 foot. That locally up to 1 foot is where the heavy bands set up. The difference from 6 inches to 12 inches is much more forgivable than the difference from no snow to 10 inches but such was the case in this storm.

Naturally, the public cries fowl, but what can you do? Meteorology is no perfect science and the atmosphere is more complicated than anyone can even imagine. Storms such as these really should not even be tied to snow total forecasts, but the public demands to know how much will fall, so they are necessary. This is compounded even more so by the fact that most people get their forecasts from the local news. And of course the news doesn't overreact to things, right?

Basically, the storm totals, the school closings, the early releases and everything else that was overblown in this case should be forgivable. People like to accuse meteorologists of being wrong half of the time but that is not nearly true. Think of how many forecasts have been dead on in the past year. Storms, especially winter storms are very complicated. So lay off the bitching and moaning. Or at least refrain from bitching to me.

Welcome!

Well, I have done it. After a long walk home from a bad run in the remnants of the winter storm that never was, I decided it was time to create a blog dedicated to my love in life, weather. I know, I am about 5 years too late for the blog bandwagon, but no one has ever accused me of being on time for anything.

So what will this blog be about? Time will tell of course, but I have every intention of making this little piece of internet space a place that you can come to learn about weather both local and not so local, a place that gives more personalized forecasts and offers explanations behind them and of course a place where you can hear me on my soapbox ranting about weather and other things as well in a mildly comical manner.

Why do I think I am qualified to do this? Most people who know me also know that I am obsessed with 3 things. Milk, sports and weather. I have been this way for literally as long as I can remember and I fully intend to make meteorology both my hobby and career soon enough.But in the meantime, I am going to use this silly forum to display my passion and also allow me to waste some more time on the internet.

So that is it for now. You better keep coming back to read this or else. ( I feel starting things off with a threat is good luck)

Greg