So by now, you all know the deal. Another week, another storm, well really another 2 storms. Yes yes, I know that everyone is bitching about it, but to be honest, it hasn't been as bad as we have all made it out to be. A little ranting first before we get into the details.
With January coming to a close today (Happy Birthday Mom!), Boston checked in with 38.3 inches of snow, our 3rd snowiest January ever. The number 1 spot was 43 inches only 6 years ago in 2005. And of course we all remember the 107 inches of snow we got in 1995/1996. I don't think we break that record this year.
The reason this winter has seemed worse is the condensed timing of all the snowfall. 60 inches in just over 30 days. But what really has made this winter quite annoying is the fact that we just haven't seen any melting. Living where we do, we expect snow in the winter. But we also expect winter thaws and rain. It comes with the territory of being a coastal community. Not this year.
There is a fairly simple answer as to why we have stayed so cold and so snowy for the past month, but I am not going to get into it now. Just remember that the next time you hear someone complain about this being the worst winter ever, they are wrong. And if that same person starts talking about global warming being the cause or being proven to be not true, walk away because clearly you are dealing with a dumbass. Anyways, onto the show!!!!
- Two storms will be hitting us. The first is forming over eastern PA as we speak. It is not really connected to the main storm, but in many ways( meteorological ways of course!) it is. For your purposes though, we will just call it storm 1.
- Storm 1 starts with some light snow between 8AM-10AM. Again, snowfall will be light, but this little storm really starts to crank up by the afternoon. By late afternoon into the commute tomorrow night, snow will really be falling at a good clip. Its all gone by 8PM tomorrow night but not before giving us a good 6-10 inches of snowfall. And this should be all snowfall for Boston.
- Now, we do get a "break" in the action tomorrow night from 8pm to Midnight or so. After midnight, storm number 2 moves in and this one is a biggie. She will be fresh off her visit to OK City and Chicago where they could see 2 feet of snow! And she will still be packing a punch for us.
- This storm is VERY dynamic and will be carrying a lot of moisture. But because it is so strong and due to its irregular path across the country and more specifically across NE, Boston and areas southward are going to be very hard to give accurate snowfall totals too.
-One thing is for sure, the RT 2 area and central to northern New England are going to get SLAMMED. Expect snowfall totals upwards of 3 feet in some mountain locations.
- Around Boston though, I just can't say.It is going to be a very very thin line between snow,freezing rain and just plain rain. The Mass Pike has been being used as the seperation point, but that sort of pin point forecasting is just impossible to predict. It will just require some close oberservations on Wednesday. I don't think the icing situation will be as serious as previously thought.
- I keep hearing these massive snowfall totals reported on the news but I tell you now, be CAREFUL in how you receive these totals. They are very misleading. 10-15 inches in Boston is certainly possible but over two days, which leaves a lot of time to clean up. I also believe that this second storm, although much, much stronger, will give us the a lot of mixing in the daytime hours in the city. Wednesday may be more wet than white.
- Whatever the precipitation is, it will be going on all day on Wednesday. Northern MA and Southern NH look to get slammed with this one. Models have been very consistent on that part but there is always the chance that the jackpot area moves depending on the storm track. Wednesdays storm is very much a wait and see situation.
-Everything is over by Wednesday night and things will quiet down for 48 hours until the next storm!
My advice to people/parents/schools would be to close early tomorrow night. The drive home is going to be hell. It's another one of those timing storms. As for Wednesday, I fear a large over reaction might be coming! I can easily see thousands of schools and businesses closing only to see that it is raining or sleeting for most of the day! This is a very likely scenario but what can you do? There is just no way that anyone or any computer model can tell you how the precipitation will fall. I will have to do a post about why in the future. But for now, this post has gone on long enough! I applaud those of you who read it all!
Now, commence bitching amongst one another about how winter sucks!
Monday, January 31, 2011
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Very Serious Icing Threat Looms Midweek
The more things change, the more things stay the same!
This pattern won't quit. We have clearly been in the line of fire for storms during the past 5 weeks. And what's more, these storms have been all snow events with the exception of south eastern parts of the state. It is fairly rare for all big storms in the winter to remain all snow events, given our proximity to the ocean and of course the extremely volatile nature of the atmosphere! But of course, here we are, more than half of the winter done with and no less than 60 inches haven already fallen, with the promise of more this week.
This next one will certainly be big and its effects will be widespread across much of the country. Many areas, like Texas and Florida, will see the coldest temperatures of the winter with icy conditions.
As for us, we are looking at two storms that will affect us from Tuesday through Thursday.
The first storm will be moving out of the Great Lakes region late Monday night into Tuesday. As this quick hitting storm runs into the re enforced arctic air that we see on Monday, snow will break out over our area during the day on Tuesday. This first storm isn't strong but it will drop a good 2-5 inches of snow on us during daylight hours on Tuesday.
It may seem like there is not even two storms to the casual observer, given their close proximity, but after a short lived break on Tuesday night, a more potent storm will move into the area.
This one looks very strong and very complicated. I don't have a lot of time right now to get into the specifics but as of right now, it looks like we could be in for an extended period of ice and freezing rain on Wednesday. Not good.
Ice is the worst possible thing in a winter storm. Even just a small amount of it can shut a region down for days. Remember the ice storm in 2008 in central Mass?
Not sure of the dynamics yet but if we do get a shot of icing as expected, it will likely result in much worse conditions than any of the snow storms that we have gotten all winter. Boston hasn't seen an ice storm in quite some time. At least with snow, you can move it out of the way. Ice is not easy to remove at all.
I think this situation poses a real threat to us and it calls for close monitoring, again, more so than any snow we have gotten so far.
I will update more on this later.
This pattern won't quit. We have clearly been in the line of fire for storms during the past 5 weeks. And what's more, these storms have been all snow events with the exception of south eastern parts of the state. It is fairly rare for all big storms in the winter to remain all snow events, given our proximity to the ocean and of course the extremely volatile nature of the atmosphere! But of course, here we are, more than half of the winter done with and no less than 60 inches haven already fallen, with the promise of more this week.
This next one will certainly be big and its effects will be widespread across much of the country. Many areas, like Texas and Florida, will see the coldest temperatures of the winter with icy conditions.
As for us, we are looking at two storms that will affect us from Tuesday through Thursday.
The first storm will be moving out of the Great Lakes region late Monday night into Tuesday. As this quick hitting storm runs into the re enforced arctic air that we see on Monday, snow will break out over our area during the day on Tuesday. This first storm isn't strong but it will drop a good 2-5 inches of snow on us during daylight hours on Tuesday.
It may seem like there is not even two storms to the casual observer, given their close proximity, but after a short lived break on Tuesday night, a more potent storm will move into the area.
This one looks very strong and very complicated. I don't have a lot of time right now to get into the specifics but as of right now, it looks like we could be in for an extended period of ice and freezing rain on Wednesday. Not good.
Ice is the worst possible thing in a winter storm. Even just a small amount of it can shut a region down for days. Remember the ice storm in 2008 in central Mass?
Not sure of the dynamics yet but if we do get a shot of icing as expected, it will likely result in much worse conditions than any of the snow storms that we have gotten all winter. Boston hasn't seen an ice storm in quite some time. At least with snow, you can move it out of the way. Ice is not easy to remove at all.
I think this situation poses a real threat to us and it calls for close monitoring, again, more so than any snow we have gotten so far.
I will update more on this later.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Even I Am Getting Sick of This
Totals are in.
Snow Totals
I need to go to work. And I am not pleased
This storm was a bit stronger than expected.
I am done shoveling forever.
Snow Totals
I need to go to work. And I am not pleased
This storm was a bit stronger than expected.
I am done shoveling forever.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
The Opening Act is Over
Well that was unexpected! Snowfall extended further north than I thought from the storm that is missing us to the South. Light accumulations around Boston made for a messy commute and the south shore and Cape Cod actually got caught up in some moderate snow bands. But this snow really has nothing to do with our real storm.
That storm is just starting to develop right over Delaware and will be speeding our way all night. This light snow comes to an end in the next hour and then we get a 4 hour break. After that, heavy snowfall overspreads the area after midnight.
Total Accumulations haven't changed since last night. Although with some of the heavier snow bands over the south eastern portion of the state from earlier today, totals down there might exceed a foot.
More updates later!
That storm is just starting to develop right over Delaware and will be speeding our way all night. This light snow comes to an end in the next hour and then we get a 4 hour break. After that, heavy snowfall overspreads the area after midnight.
Total Accumulations haven't changed since last night. Although with some of the heavier snow bands over the south eastern portion of the state from earlier today, totals down there might exceed a foot.
More updates later!
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Important Snowfall Adjustments
Just when it looked like this storm was behaving and staying uncomplicated, things changed. Not dramatic changes but enough to alter storm totals. Here is the rundown, now under 24 hours until storm time.
- Two storms will be forming. One big one, that goes out to sea and another pretty big one that hits us in a 12 hour period. The fact that these things never come together is why we aren't talking blizzard.
-Light snow starts anywhere from 5-8PM tomorrow night. Heavy snow moves into the area after 1AM and lasts until probably about 6AM.
- Fast moving storm that is gone by 11AM.
- I think 5-10 inches is a good bet across the eastern part of the state. In the city itself, maybe 6-8. Outside of 495, totals drop off dramatically. And out on the Cape will see 2-4 inches.
This is obviously a change in previous totals. I think a foot of snow is not going to happen. 10 inches is probably even a stretch except for a few areas south of the city.
The storm is just moving too fast and won't have enough moisture. Don't be surprised if the totals come down even more tomorrow. The NWS will likely be making adjustments to their advisory areas.
- Two storms will be forming. One big one, that goes out to sea and another pretty big one that hits us in a 12 hour period. The fact that these things never come together is why we aren't talking blizzard.
-Light snow starts anywhere from 5-8PM tomorrow night. Heavy snow moves into the area after 1AM and lasts until probably about 6AM.
- Fast moving storm that is gone by 11AM.
- I think 5-10 inches is a good bet across the eastern part of the state. In the city itself, maybe 6-8. Outside of 495, totals drop off dramatically. And out on the Cape will see 2-4 inches.
This is obviously a change in previous totals. I think a foot of snow is not going to happen. 10 inches is probably even a stretch except for a few areas south of the city.
The storm is just moving too fast and won't have enough moisture. Don't be surprised if the totals come down even more tomorrow. The NWS will likely be making adjustments to their advisory areas.
Storm Still On
Here are the latest model comparisons for our snow storm tomorrow night.
4:30pm GFS shows heavy snow overspreading area at 1AM tomorrow morning.
Here is the 2:30PM NAM also for 1AM tomorrow morning. Similar notion, but the 32 degree line is further south on this particular solution.
Here is the 1:30PM CAM model run for 1AM tomorrow morning. The same sentiment is being shown across the board. Heavy snowfall all over.
Soooo, where does this leave us? A somewhat quick hitter with a general swath of 6-10 inches. I am not convinced that anyone outside of one or two towns will get over a foot. As the NWS in Taunton agrees with me.
4:30pm GFS shows heavy snow overspreading area at 1AM tomorrow morning.
Here is the 2:30PM NAM also for 1AM tomorrow morning. Similar notion, but the 32 degree line is further south on this particular solution.
Here is the 1:30PM CAM model run for 1AM tomorrow morning. The same sentiment is being shown across the board. Heavy snowfall all over.
Soooo, where does this leave us? A somewhat quick hitter with a general swath of 6-10 inches. I am not convinced that anyone outside of one or two towns will get over a foot. As the NWS in Taunton agrees with me.
Monday, January 24, 2011
More snow
49.6 inches and counting. More snow is most certainly be on the way after latest model runs show a colder storm (further east) than previously thought. Highlights
- Time line is 7PM Wednesday evening into 1PM Thursday afternoon. The light snowfall that fell early this morning is not associated with the coming storm.
- Probably a good 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow across the area.
- Wind will be an issue too late tonight as storm intensifies
- Quick mover but once again, a poorly timed storm . The most intense part of the storm will be overnight tomorrow night, but it will linger into the commute Thursday morning.
- Mixing/Rain issues on the South Shore and Cape Cod. Persistent surface cold air likely prevents rain/snow line from ever making it up to Boston.
More information as it comes later today!
- Time line is 7PM Wednesday evening into 1PM Thursday afternoon. The light snowfall that fell early this morning is not associated with the coming storm.
- Probably a good 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow across the area.
- Wind will be an issue too late tonight as storm intensifies
- Quick mover but once again, a poorly timed storm . The most intense part of the storm will be overnight tomorrow night, but it will linger into the commute Thursday morning.
- Mixing/Rain issues on the South Shore and Cape Cod. Persistent surface cold air likely prevents rain/snow line from ever making it up to Boston.
More information as it comes later today!
Sunday, January 23, 2011
How far will they drop!
All eyes are on the low temperature values we will see overnight. What will Boston's temperature be? What will be the coldest reading in the state? How cold will Mount Washington get?
I am interested in all of these things, but I am not going to stay up light to watch the thermometer fall. And yes, I did in fact consider it. But I will let the other die hard weather nerds take care of that while I am snugly in bed with a cat who will certainly be cuddling up for warmth.
Make sure you check out this link to see how cold Mount Washington gets. That will give you an indication of just how cold this air will be tonight.
Mt.WashingtonCurrentConditions
Below 0 values pretty much across the board tonight, with some areas easily reaching the -20 to -30 range! Take a look at those dew points. Very dry air. Barley a hint of water in the air. Your hometowns dew point temperature will give you a good indication of where you will bottom out tonight.
Stay warm! And check out my new links on the right hand side of the page! I am trying to make this blog look a little nicer but it will be slow going so please be patient!
I am interested in all of these things, but I am not going to stay up light to watch the thermometer fall. And yes, I did in fact consider it. But I will let the other die hard weather nerds take care of that while I am snugly in bed with a cat who will certainly be cuddling up for warmth.
Make sure you check out this link to see how cold Mount Washington gets. That will give you an indication of just how cold this air will be tonight.
Mt.WashingtonCurrentConditions
Below 0 values pretty much across the board tonight, with some areas easily reaching the -20 to -30 range! Take a look at those dew points. Very dry air. Barley a hint of water in the air. Your hometowns dew point temperature will give you a good indication of where you will bottom out tonight.
Stay warm! And check out my new links on the right hand side of the page! I am trying to make this blog look a little nicer but it will be slow going so please be patient!
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Blockbuster Next Week?
We are still 4-5 days away from this potential storm, but with nothing else to do on a Saturday afternoon, why not speculate!!!
So lets take a look at the ingredients for what could be the biggest winter storm to date next week.
1.)
Here is our current satellite image. Take a look at that piece of energy over the middle of the country right now. That is the beginnings of our monster. She is slowly moving across the country today and soon enough, she will transfer her energy to the gulf of mexico.
2.)
Very cold (and I mean very cold!) arctic high pressure system will settle in right over our heads this weekend driving record breaking cold air all the way into the deep south. This cold air will be stuck in place at the surface for several days.
3.)
By Tuesday morning, our little storm system has tapped into that extreme gulf moisture and is rapidly developing into a monster storm. From there, our new storm will track north eastward and run into the end of our record breaking cold air. Do I have to spell this out? Warm moist air from the Gulf running into Arctic cold air right over the ocean. That leads to....
4.)
MONSTER STORM! Now of course, this is way too far away to predict snowfall totals or even total impact on the region. Actually, as of right now, a lot of models are bringing this storm too far inland, causing a snow to rain situation for us with a historic blizzard for inland areas like Albany, Pittsburgh and the Appalachians. That particular aspect of the storm won't be decided until several days from now.
What is quite likely is that we are going to be dealing with a very disruptive storm Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The last image shows a 982 mb low sitting in Long Island Sound. That is a SUPER strong storm, comparable to a category 1 hurricane. It would be stronger than any storm we have seen this winter.
Again, no one has any idea what type of precipitation we will get. But the 2 things that are pretty much indisputable at the moment are that we will see some type of storm mid week and it is going to be VERY windy.
More to come later!
So lets take a look at the ingredients for what could be the biggest winter storm to date next week.
1.)
Here is our current satellite image. Take a look at that piece of energy over the middle of the country right now. That is the beginnings of our monster. She is slowly moving across the country today and soon enough, she will transfer her energy to the gulf of mexico.2.)
Very cold (and I mean very cold!) arctic high pressure system will settle in right over our heads this weekend driving record breaking cold air all the way into the deep south. This cold air will be stuck in place at the surface for several days.3.)
By Tuesday morning, our little storm system has tapped into that extreme gulf moisture and is rapidly developing into a monster storm. From there, our new storm will track north eastward and run into the end of our record breaking cold air. Do I have to spell this out? Warm moist air from the Gulf running into Arctic cold air right over the ocean. That leads to....
4.)
MONSTER STORM! Now of course, this is way too far away to predict snowfall totals or even total impact on the region. Actually, as of right now, a lot of models are bringing this storm too far inland, causing a snow to rain situation for us with a historic blizzard for inland areas like Albany, Pittsburgh and the Appalachians. That particular aspect of the storm won't be decided until several days from now.What is quite likely is that we are going to be dealing with a very disruptive storm Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The last image shows a 982 mb low sitting in Long Island Sound. That is a SUPER strong storm, comparable to a category 1 hurricane. It would be stronger than any storm we have seen this winter.
Again, no one has any idea what type of precipitation we will get. But the 2 things that are pretty much indisputable at the moment are that we will see some type of storm mid week and it is going to be VERY windy.
More to come later!
Friday, January 21, 2011
Records May Fall
So much for the La Nina winter. Revised winter forecasts were released this week and the theme of the story for the country will be very dry in the west, very cold in the east. In particular, the next 3 weeks in the Northeast will be quite cold, possibly highlighted by record breaking cold Sunday night into Monday morning.
January 22, 2005. That was the last time that the city of Boston fell below 0 degrees. That streak will be over after Sunday. But whats really wild is that portions of the state and the area may fall to as low as -15 or -20 degrees! Areas in Northern New England could drop even further. I can't wait to see what Mount Washington's low temperature is!
A few notes...
- 49.6 inches. That is where we stand for snowfall total in Boston and that is larger than our expected winter total! More will fall as well.
- Next weeks storm looks like a messy situation right now. The rain/snow line situation will unlikely be solved until very close to storm time. But, what is confirmed is that we are in the line of fire for storms right now. After next weeks storm, there are indications of at least two more that are right behind it.
Stay warm!
January 22, 2005. That was the last time that the city of Boston fell below 0 degrees. That streak will be over after Sunday. But whats really wild is that portions of the state and the area may fall to as low as -15 or -20 degrees! Areas in Northern New England could drop even further. I can't wait to see what Mount Washington's low temperature is!
A few notes...
- 49.6 inches. That is where we stand for snowfall total in Boston and that is larger than our expected winter total! More will fall as well.
- Next weeks storm looks like a messy situation right now. The rain/snow line situation will unlikely be solved until very close to storm time. But, what is confirmed is that we are in the line of fire for storms right now. After next weeks storm, there are indications of at least two more that are right behind it.
Stay warm!
Annnnd We Are Done!
Just as promised, this last one was a fast mover. A quick 7 inches fell over most of the greater Boston area. A general 4-8 inches fell over southern New England. As always, storm totals can be found here.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS
So what is next? Coldness. And as it looks right now, Sunday night into Monday may be the coldest air that some of us have seen in our lifetimes! Look at the projected lows for 3AM on Monday.
Your eyes do not deceive you. The majority of the state will be below 0, even coastal areas. This is nearly unprecedented in recent years.
High temps on Monday are unlikely to get out of the single digits. Yikes! The cold polar high pressure system is going to sit right on top of us and really cool us down.
And then of course there is the possibility of another major winter storm next Wednesday into Thursday..... The fun just keeps on coming!
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS
So what is next? Coldness. And as it looks right now, Sunday night into Monday may be the coldest air that some of us have seen in our lifetimes! Look at the projected lows for 3AM on Monday.
Your eyes do not deceive you. The majority of the state will be below 0, even coastal areas. This is nearly unprecedented in recent years.High temps on Monday are unlikely to get out of the single digits. Yikes! The cold polar high pressure system is going to sit right on top of us and really cool us down.
And then of course there is the possibility of another major winter storm next Wednesday into Thursday..... The fun just keeps on coming!
Thursday, January 20, 2011
More Snow
I am fairly lazy tonight. It's been that kind of week. Anyways, more snow! And better yet, more morning time commute snow.
This is our third storm in a row that is hitting at a bad time, namely the weekday morning commute. That is why so many schools are canceling. Anyways, the highlights!
- Quick moving storm. Start to finish is under 12 hours.
-Totals are iffy. The storm will be essentially forming overhead but it is likely that the storm won't get intense until it has moved offshore.
- Timing is once again the storyline. These aren't very memorable storms, especially this one, but they are all hitting at the worst time for the public.
- Timeframe is 3AM - 12PM. I bet Boston gets 4-5 inches of light fluffy snow. Then it gets cold. And I mean really cold.
That is all I have. I will be updating tomorrow as the day goes on!
This is our third storm in a row that is hitting at a bad time, namely the weekday morning commute. That is why so many schools are canceling. Anyways, the highlights!
- Quick moving storm. Start to finish is under 12 hours.
-Totals are iffy. The storm will be essentially forming overhead but it is likely that the storm won't get intense until it has moved offshore.
- Timing is once again the storyline. These aren't very memorable storms, especially this one, but they are all hitting at the worst time for the public.
- Timeframe is 3AM - 12PM. I bet Boston gets 4-5 inches of light fluffy snow. Then it gets cold. And I mean really cold.
That is all I have. I will be updating tomorrow as the day goes on!
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
January Has Been Tough!
As expected, mixed bag is starting to move to the northwest. Not sure if this link below will work but if it does, it gives you the current position of the rain/snow line. Radar is having a real hard time separating rain/mixed and snow line. I can tell you that in West Roxbury, we switched to rain at about 1PM this afternoon, after about 3 inches of heavy wet snow.
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/enhanced-radar.asp
- Lots of talk about a messy commute. If you aren't traveling to the west or northwest of the city, I wouldn't worry about it too much. Temps have risen to 34 degrees inside of RT 128 and at this point, it is just all rain for us.
- The cold air/warm air battle is much more interesting the further west and northwest you go. Check out our surface temperatures as of 1PM today.
The cold air won't give up inland. That makes for a problem, since as mentioned yesterday, the air just above the surface is quite warm. This is where the freezing rain and ice will be. And it could get bad. As the storm passes over Cape Cod in the early evening, warm air above will continue to flood in and will contrast with that very cold air at the surface to make things nasty out there. Good luck to those folks!
- A quick peak into the near future gives us another shot at a moderate snow storm on Thursday night into Friday. This one started out as nothing, but with each passing model run, has become more and more organized. Quick guess brings about 4-8 inches of snow all over the region by Friday afternoon. That will likely change but it appears that we continue to be in an extraordinarily active winter storm pattern.
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/enhanced-radar.asp
- Lots of talk about a messy commute. If you aren't traveling to the west or northwest of the city, I wouldn't worry about it too much. Temps have risen to 34 degrees inside of RT 128 and at this point, it is just all rain for us.
- The cold air/warm air battle is much more interesting the further west and northwest you go. Check out our surface temperatures as of 1PM today.
The cold air won't give up inland. That makes for a problem, since as mentioned yesterday, the air just above the surface is quite warm. This is where the freezing rain and ice will be. And it could get bad. As the storm passes over Cape Cod in the early evening, warm air above will continue to flood in and will contrast with that very cold air at the surface to make things nasty out there. Good luck to those folks!- A quick peak into the near future gives us another shot at a moderate snow storm on Thursday night into Friday. This one started out as nothing, but with each passing model run, has become more and more organized. Quick guess brings about 4-8 inches of snow all over the region by Friday afternoon. That will likely change but it appears that we continue to be in an extraordinarily active winter storm pattern.
Monday, January 17, 2011
A Case of the Yucks and Ice
Today was no fun. Losing is no fun. And tomorrow won't be any better. A case of the yucks is coming. Snow, Sleet, Ice, Rain. Yuck.
Another storm is on its way, keeping the activity level of storms high. This one actually won't take a much different track than our last storm. But there is one key difference. Upper atmosphere warmth. Take a look at the expected temperature about 5000 feet above us tomorrow at 11AM.
That red line is key. Its the 32 degree line. Despite it not being over Boston, it represents too Too much warm air above us that won't support snow. BUT, it is obviously very cold outside, it has been all day. That cold air is actually stuck at the surface. Here are expected surface temps at the same hour.
Still below freezing across most of the area. Although an increase of 15+ degrees in under 12 hours is a big temperature swing. Nevertheless, this is the perfect recipe for wet snow, turning to rain and ice, depending on location. The change to rain is quick the closer to the coast you get. Further inland and in higher elevations, that cold air holds in place longer, creating an icing situation.
Timing is tough to pin down on this one.
-It will start as light snow for pretty much everyone by sunrise. Then its time to watch the rain/snow line push northwestward from late morning on.
-Snow won't be the storyline on this storm. Boston and surrounding areas might get a sloppy couple of inches (yes i realize the sexual innuendo i just created). The story will be the ice. Ice is the worst thing to get. And ice on tree limbs that are already very stressed is bad news bears.
- Totals are all over the place, but northwest areas of MA stand to get the worst. Things are going to be very sloppy in Boston, especially with at least 7 inches of snow, and bigger snow piles, all around the area.
After that, watch out for the flash freeze.Arctic temperatures are going to be our new best friend starting on Friday and lasting into next week.
Another storm is on its way, keeping the activity level of storms high. This one actually won't take a much different track than our last storm. But there is one key difference. Upper atmosphere warmth. Take a look at the expected temperature about 5000 feet above us tomorrow at 11AM.
That red line is key. Its the 32 degree line. Despite it not being over Boston, it represents too Too much warm air above us that won't support snow. BUT, it is obviously very cold outside, it has been all day. That cold air is actually stuck at the surface. Here are expected surface temps at the same hour.
Still below freezing across most of the area. Although an increase of 15+ degrees in under 12 hours is a big temperature swing. Nevertheless, this is the perfect recipe for wet snow, turning to rain and ice, depending on location. The change to rain is quick the closer to the coast you get. Further inland and in higher elevations, that cold air holds in place longer, creating an icing situation.Timing is tough to pin down on this one.
-It will start as light snow for pretty much everyone by sunrise. Then its time to watch the rain/snow line push northwestward from late morning on.
-Snow won't be the storyline on this storm. Boston and surrounding areas might get a sloppy couple of inches (yes i realize the sexual innuendo i just created). The story will be the ice. Ice is the worst thing to get. And ice on tree limbs that are already very stressed is bad news bears.
- Totals are all over the place, but northwest areas of MA stand to get the worst. Things are going to be very sloppy in Boston, especially with at least 7 inches of snow, and bigger snow piles, all around the area.
After that, watch out for the flash freeze.Arctic temperatures are going to be our new best friend starting on Friday and lasting into next week.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Final Totals
Impressive storm overall. Much more snow fell overall in this storm than in the December 26th-27th storm.
Quiet for now. The temperatures really bottom out tonight with a cold northwest flow and a fresh snow cover. Expect temps in the single digits in most places by early morning. So if you haven't cleared off your car or shoveled, do it now! Before everything becomes just one big ice ball.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Numerous Damage Reports
Lots of damage reports and power outages being reported, mainly in the eastern and south eastern part of the state. Why? Check out the temperature profile in MA from 3AM last night.
Lots of warm air flooded into the eastern half of the state. It was whats called an ocean front that sets up, similar to a sea breeze in the summer. It stayed all snow from about Plymouth northward because it was falling so fast it didn't have time to completely melt. I suspect we changed over to some sleet/ice at around the time of this image last night. Regardless, the snow was very heavy and saturated. One walk around the neighborhood shows lots of branches down and being weighed down by heavy snow.
One other thing to note is how cold it remained in interior MA and CT. That is where the highest snowfall totals are being reported. Back there, the snow was fluffy but there was much more.
Lots of warm air flooded into the eastern half of the state. It was whats called an ocean front that sets up, similar to a sea breeze in the summer. It stayed all snow from about Plymouth northward because it was falling so fast it didn't have time to completely melt. I suspect we changed over to some sleet/ice at around the time of this image last night. Regardless, the snow was very heavy and saturated. One walk around the neighborhood shows lots of branches down and being weighed down by heavy snow.One other thing to note is how cold it remained in interior MA and CT. That is where the highest snowfall totals are being reported. Back there, the snow was fluffy but there was much more.
Totals Are Coming In
Good job all around on the forecasting of this one, and the regional snowfall totals that are coming in are verifying that. Check them out here.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS
I have yet to get out and measure myself but my prediction for my front deck was 14.2 inches. By the looks of it, I think I will be close.
Still some moderate snowfall occurring over the next 2-3 hours. Lots of damage and power outages being reported as well. Stay tuned!
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS
I have yet to get out and measure myself but my prediction for my front deck was 14.2 inches. By the looks of it, I think I will be close.
Still some moderate snowfall occurring over the next 2-3 hours. Lots of damage and power outages being reported as well. Stay tuned!
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Snow No!
I apologize for my silence yesterday. Although the only one who seemed to miss me very much was my mom so mom, this post is for you!
Just a quick tidbit for now as I am writing this on my lunch break.
- Storm is a go. Likely to start snowing between 12AM-2AM tonight.
- Worst of the storm will most certainly be in the wee morning hours and into late Wednesday morning. Which makes a morning commute likely impossible.
- I have seen/heard a lot regarding totals. 18 inches is unlikely in most places. The storm will move out too fast to drop that much moisture. I would guess 10-14 inches is a good bet from RT 2 south to Plymouth. The higher amounts will be focused on RI and central CT.
-Storm undergoes "Bombogenisis" which is coincidently enough my new favorite meteorological term. It basically means that it will intesify very quickly once the Low reaches the ocean overnight. Thunder snow? Possible in some areas, mainly to the south of MA though.
- I would imagine that the real heavy snow is done by mid afternoon tomorrow. Lingering snow showers are likely, but the storm looks to be moving a bit faster than predicted. Winds will be very strong tomorrow though in the wake of it all.
That is all I have for now. At this point, its just about time to stop looking at models and to start actually looking at real time data and seeing just how this storm takes shape!
Just a quick tidbit for now as I am writing this on my lunch break.
- Storm is a go. Likely to start snowing between 12AM-2AM tonight.
- Worst of the storm will most certainly be in the wee morning hours and into late Wednesday morning. Which makes a morning commute likely impossible.
- I have seen/heard a lot regarding totals. 18 inches is unlikely in most places. The storm will move out too fast to drop that much moisture. I would guess 10-14 inches is a good bet from RT 2 south to Plymouth. The higher amounts will be focused on RI and central CT.
-Storm undergoes "Bombogenisis" which is coincidently enough my new favorite meteorological term. It basically means that it will intesify very quickly once the Low reaches the ocean overnight. Thunder snow? Possible in some areas, mainly to the south of MA though.
- I would imagine that the real heavy snow is done by mid afternoon tomorrow. Lingering snow showers are likely, but the storm looks to be moving a bit faster than predicted. Winds will be very strong tomorrow though in the wake of it all.
That is all I have for now. At this point, its just about time to stop looking at models and to start actually looking at real time data and seeing just how this storm takes shape!
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Rain Issues
So things are changing. Naturally. Rain/Snow line battle will be a major factor on Wednesday during the day. Take a look at the latest temperature spread during the storm.
Temps in the mid to upper 30's won't make any snow. Latest models have the storm tracking right over Cape Cod. That will allow too much warm air to change snow over to rain anywhere inside of 2o miles of the coast.
Temps in the mid to upper 30's won't make any snow. Latest models have the storm tracking right over Cape Cod. That will allow too much warm air to change snow over to rain anywhere inside of 2o miles of the coast.
Midweek Storm is On
You know what else is on? My attempt at p90x. Yes that is right. This once moderate runner is now forced to turn to dvd's with men in shirts that say bring it. And no, it is not porn. I have attempted 1 workout. It was hard. Tomorrow I start for real. We shall see how long this lasts. More importantly, Katrina is suppose to be doing it with me. I think you should all pressure her into going through this miserable program with me. Tell her yourself at her Facebook page here.
http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/katrinamariec
Anywayyyys. I suppose you are all wondering about this little midweek storm we have. Well two things I do know. 1.) This one is an almost definite yes on a hit, which is saying a lot for this winter's craziness. 2.) 6+ inches is likely in the Boston area. For once this winter, all of the major models are agreeing on a path, mostly. The image below shows that all models are coming to a consensus on a storm track just south of Nantucket.
As for totals, the latest NAM model, which is just one picture, brings a decent amount of snow to the area. 6-10 inches Boston south. It is likely that the snow changes to rain on Cape Cod because too much warm air will intrude off the ocean.
That is all I have for now. I have to rest up for my big day tomorrow. Obviously I will have more tomorrow on this storm. It is not a big one though. Just big enough to close schools and cause annoyance.
And before I go, here is a special shout out to my cousin in San Fransisco.
- Its going to rain.
http://www.facebook.com/?ref=home#!/katrinamariec
Anywayyyys. I suppose you are all wondering about this little midweek storm we have. Well two things I do know. 1.) This one is an almost definite yes on a hit, which is saying a lot for this winter's craziness. 2.) 6+ inches is likely in the Boston area. For once this winter, all of the major models are agreeing on a path, mostly. The image below shows that all models are coming to a consensus on a storm track just south of Nantucket.
As for totals, the latest NAM model, which is just one picture, brings a decent amount of snow to the area. 6-10 inches Boston south. It is likely that the snow changes to rain on Cape Cod because too much warm air will intrude off the ocean.
That is all I have for now. I have to rest up for my big day tomorrow. Obviously I will have more tomorrow on this storm. It is not a big one though. Just big enough to close schools and cause annoyance.
And before I go, here is a special shout out to my cousin in San Fransisco.
- Its going to rain.
Friday, January 7, 2011
Two Storms, One Cup!
I apologize for bringing up memories of that horrific video.
Anyways! Our difficult winter continues, and I don't mean difficult in the sense that this winter has been cold or snowy. It has actually been pretty average. But I digress. It has been a difficult winter to forecast.
Now, I am not a professional meteorologist yet. (God willing I shall be soon!) But I do fancy myself to be one that has a pretty good understanding of our local weather, especially when it comes to winter. But I cannot remember a winter where I have come across more "weather irregularities" that I have never heard of before or that make it next to impossible for an amateur meteorologist to predict much less a professional one. If any of you have been listening to some of the old time New England weathermen recently, you will hear them echo the same sentiments. Most have thrown traditional model forecasting out the window this winter because it is simply not working.
So where does that leave us? Really back to square one. Especially this weekend. Look out your window. If it is snowing, then you are going to get accumulating snow. If it is not snowing, put those shovels away. Want proof? Just look at this snowfall forecast graphic below.
When have you ever seen a snowfall map like this? I never have. And this illustrates the complexity of this particular system. Think of it like this. The atmosphere above us is very unstable right now. There continues to be a constant flow of "energy" rotating over us for the next 48 hours. All of the important action is happening 10,000 feet above your heads.
For tonight, that action will show itself in the form of some moderate snow to the west of Boston and NYC. In fact, I wouldn't expect areas around Boston to see any snow until after midnight.
This "storm" weakens overnight and then a NEW mid level storm forms tomorrow. This one will bring us some accumulating snow for sure. Most of that should fall late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. And strangely enough, the heaviest amounts will likely be on Cape Cod.
Just another bizarre storm in the winter of 10/11. I will have more on snowfall totals for tomorrow at a later point. For tonight though, anyone east of Springfield need not worry about any snow hindering their Friday night plans.
Anyways! Our difficult winter continues, and I don't mean difficult in the sense that this winter has been cold or snowy. It has actually been pretty average. But I digress. It has been a difficult winter to forecast.
Now, I am not a professional meteorologist yet. (God willing I shall be soon!) But I do fancy myself to be one that has a pretty good understanding of our local weather, especially when it comes to winter. But I cannot remember a winter where I have come across more "weather irregularities" that I have never heard of before or that make it next to impossible for an amateur meteorologist to predict much less a professional one. If any of you have been listening to some of the old time New England weathermen recently, you will hear them echo the same sentiments. Most have thrown traditional model forecasting out the window this winter because it is simply not working.
So where does that leave us? Really back to square one. Especially this weekend. Look out your window. If it is snowing, then you are going to get accumulating snow. If it is not snowing, put those shovels away. Want proof? Just look at this snowfall forecast graphic below.
When have you ever seen a snowfall map like this? I never have. And this illustrates the complexity of this particular system. Think of it like this. The atmosphere above us is very unstable right now. There continues to be a constant flow of "energy" rotating over us for the next 48 hours. All of the important action is happening 10,000 feet above your heads.For tonight, that action will show itself in the form of some moderate snow to the west of Boston and NYC. In fact, I wouldn't expect areas around Boston to see any snow until after midnight.
This "storm" weakens overnight and then a NEW mid level storm forms tomorrow. This one will bring us some accumulating snow for sure. Most of that should fall late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. And strangely enough, the heaviest amounts will likely be on Cape Cod.
Just another bizarre storm in the winter of 10/11. I will have more on snowfall totals for tomorrow at a later point. For tonight though, anyone east of Springfield need not worry about any snow hindering their Friday night plans.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Strange Storm
If anyone is wondering why I have been so quiet about our "snow storm" for this weekend has to do to mainly with the fact that I don't really understand it! It is the first time I have heard of a NORLIN Trough, which is what will bring a heavy band of snow to SOME area tomorrow but I do not know where or really more importantly, I don't know why.
That being said, I don't think it is a big hit for us. As mentioned, a heavy band of snow will develop because of atmospheric anomalies and where ever that 30-60 mile wide band is, heavy snow will follow. Towns in that band could receive close to a foot. Us? Maybe a few inches at best. The latest forecast totals are below.
This should make it clear to everyone however that the science of meteorology has a long way to go in the area of small scale forecasting.
That being said, I don't think it is a big hit for us. As mentioned, a heavy band of snow will develop because of atmospheric anomalies and where ever that 30-60 mile wide band is, heavy snow will follow. Towns in that band could receive close to a foot. Us? Maybe a few inches at best. The latest forecast totals are below.
This should make it clear to everyone however that the science of meteorology has a long way to go in the area of small scale forecasting.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Happy New Year! And Make Sure You Still Have Winter Coats!
I decided to take a few days off from posting after our last big storm. And what a storm it was! You constantly hear from the public when weathermen get the forecast wrong but where is the praise when the forecast is correct? They nailed the last storm right on the head and a good 48 hours out. New York City failed to take the warning seriously and you saw what happened to them!
Anyways, since then, we have had a bit of a winter thaw, highlighted by a new years eve that featured temperatures in the low 40's! No complaints here about that one. New years eve usually has bitter cold conditions.
Our thaw did eliminate most of our snow cover. It is amazing to me still how fast 16 inches of snow can disappear in just a matter of days.
No matter though. Starting with our snowstorm on Friday (more on that later) we will be entering a VERY cold pattern that will last until the end of the month. Winter will certainly be taking the whole country by storm over the next few weeks so be ready!
Anyways, since then, we have had a bit of a winter thaw, highlighted by a new years eve that featured temperatures in the low 40's! No complaints here about that one. New years eve usually has bitter cold conditions.
Our thaw did eliminate most of our snow cover. It is amazing to me still how fast 16 inches of snow can disappear in just a matter of days.
No matter though. Starting with our snowstorm on Friday (more on that later) we will be entering a VERY cold pattern that will last until the end of the month. Winter will certainly be taking the whole country by storm over the next few weeks so be ready!
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