Earl Didn't Have A Chance

Don't say you weren't warned. A combination of cold water, wind sheer and high latitude broke Earl apart over the past 24 hours. This kind of thing happens with Hurricanes or as Earl is now known, a Tropical Storm.

Expect heavy rain and somewhat gusty winds over the next 4-6 hours. No damage should occur, even on the once thought vulnerable Cape and the Islands. Peak wind gusts are listed at 70mph but the NWS has only observed a peak wind gust on a buoy off Long Island at 60 mph. Hardly worth a second look.

It's all over by morning. Sun will be out tomorrow and then cooler and more seasonable temps follow this week with much less humidity.

As a farewell bid to our friend Earl, take a look at this satellite image from yesterday morning, when Earl was a category 4 storm, living the good life in the warm waters off the Carolina coast.

Here is Earl as we speak right now. Notice how he is much less organized. His outer bands have spread and the front approaching from the Great Lakes. He is a shell of his former self.

Earl Moving Further East?

The 11 pm National Hurricane Center Update looms large tonight. Indications are that right now, Earl is weakening a bit and getting pushed out further east by the developing Low pressure system in the Great Lakes.

That Great Lakes storm is the key. If it becomes more amplified, it will pick up Earl and ride him right up the coast into Nantucket. If it stays more flat, ( as seems to be the case right now) then Earl will get bumped out to sea and really not affect us much at all.

Stay tuned...

Getting Ready For Earl

My friend Pete Bouchard from WHDH sums up the approaching storm perfectly below:

1) The worst part of the storm will be between 8pm-2am on Friday night. Six hours of frenzied wind and rain - mostly along the Cape and Islands. Winds will increase FROM the northeast in that timeframe, and essentially stay from that direction until the storm pulls away.

2) Power outages are likely on the Cape/Islands.

3) Loosely secured boats may be tossed from their moorings.

4) Lots of downed trees/limbs from Plymouth to the Islands.

5) Between 1 - 6 inches of rain may fall - most of it (3-6") in southeast Massachusetts.

6) If you live far away from the coast (essentially from Andover to Concord, to Framingham and down to Foxboro and points west and north) get ready for a plain-ol' run-of-the-mill weak/mild nor'easter....that's it. The effects of this storm will be mostly felt along the coast and down through the Cape/Islands. So don't fire me an email on Saturday night and tell me I blew it and ask why you didn't get any heavy rain and downed trees and power lines. I'll just cut and paste this blog in the return email.

What to expect

While much of the discussion has revolved around the possibility that Earl MAY make landfall on Nantucket, but there is also the possibility that he may move FARTHER OFFSHORE. That is a real possibility, and one that we will watch for late tomorrow (impossible to call now). If that happens, we will ramp down on coverage and rhetoric.

Ocean swells from Earl are here! Waves will be most intense through Saturday. Beach erosion is imminent and severe. Total realignment of the sand is possible (including the expansion and formation of sand bars) on some of your favorite beaches. Although it's a great weekend to gawk at the waves, BE CAREFUL if you venture into the water. Rip currents will be strong and numerous all through Labor Day weekend.

Saving grace (if there is one) is that the storm will rocket out of here. Sun's out by Saturday morning, and the weekend looks great.