Still a very strong storm

Look at our storm center as of a few hours ago. Yikes! Very strong center of circulation. Translating to some extremely strong winds on the backside of this system.

In fact, a weather buoy that sits just east of Nantucket measured an atmospheric pressure of 28.48 inches this morning!! That is a pressure level associated with a category 3 hurricane! And this mornings pressure level was just a mere 3/10ths away from an all time record in low pressure at that buoy.

Impressive stuff here. This one will go down in the record books for sure.

Its Over!

Greg is at work! What a shame! But the storm is over. It lived up to expectations for the most part. Snowfall totals were a little less than expected but overall, I ended up with just over 16 inches on my front porch.

The rest of the toatals can be found here

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Scroll down to the wind gust details and you will see that Wellfleet on Cape Cod had a gust of 80mph at 10:52 last night!!! That is extremely strong and shows just how strong our storm got.

It is going to be windy and COLD today. Lots of blowing snow. I will have more info on the storm once I get home and away from silly work. I will say that it looks like nothern New Jersey got hit hard. Snowfall totals over 25 inches in many areas.

Wow. Jersey is getting hit hard.

Look at these snowfall totals from New Jersey. The costal areas got HAMMERED and it is still snowing. I would expect very similar numbers from NYC, through CT and up through MASS.

Update

We are getting into some heavy snow bands now. Since about 6pm this evening, snow has picked up in intensity, banding together. Winds are really starting to whip up as well. This storm is currently sitting off the coast of Delaware and is now measured at 982 mb. This storm will continue to intensify and it will do so fast.

Because of that intensity, these heavy snow bands are going to continue well into wee hours of the morning. Dry slotting is a concern. That could hold snow totals down in certain areas. In the same regard, thunder snow might occur, which would result in huge snow totals in certain areas.

Here is our storm right now. It sure is a beast! Snow totals predictions remain the same for now.

Latest Totals

I am blogging this from work! Light snow already spreading throughout area as we speak. A little earlier than forecasted. Here are the latest QPF totals from the 12Z NAM model.

You can see that heavy band setting up right over Boston and south to Providence. Easily 20+ inches of snow in this corrider. Some spots will be higher.

The battle with the rain/snow line is important but it looks to stay all snow from Brockton northward. There is just too much cold air aloft and the winds are going to be too strong from the North to allow any mixing in the Boston area.

More updates later!

No Joke With This Storm

It's coming folks. For snow lovers, it is a late Christmas gift. I spoke earlier about jet stream phasing and I am sure you have heard it on the news as the local meteorologists have done a good job of an explanation this time around. That phasing is occurring as we speak.

Not only that, starting about 24 hours ago, the models started to come into agreement on a storm track that really put a walloping on the east coast but specifically in Boston. That track was pretty much confirmed this afternoon after the 12Z model runs and that is when you saw the NWS put up a blizzard warning for all of eastern Massachusetts.


Look at this GFS image at 1am early Monday morning. Once this storm hits the coast, it is really going to blow up. 980mb for a low pressure system is a really deep low. That is the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane. So winds are going to be a MAJOR issue tomorrow night. I am talking sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts over 60 mph.

The snowfall rate is serious as well. With the storm passing right over Nantucket, the watch of the rain/snow line becomes important. It is a very close pass to us. Usually, you want these storms to pass south of the islands, anything closer draws in too much warm ocean air. This one will be a troublesome thing to forecast. No models can answer those questions. If the whole area stays snow, expect 12-24 inches with some towns getting close to 30 inches of snow. Yes, 30 inches. There is THAT much moisture with this storm.

But that rain/snow line will be a big factor. I suspect we stay all snow. The overnight timing helps keep temperatures down. And winds will primarily be blowing from the north east, blocking the warmer air from penetrating further inland than Cape Cod.

It starts after noon tomorrow people and it is no joke. Top 10 snowstorm of all time is likely here. The storm will be an out and out hurricane tomorrow night and blizzard conditions will be at their peak overnight into early Monday morning. Monday morning commutes will be next to impossible. Take it very seriously.

I, for one, could not be happier! This is what it is all about. Huge blizzards. This is going to be our biggest storm of the year so enjoy it.

Santa and Storms! What better way to celelbrate Christmas?

It's Christmas Eve! I hope all of you are with your families or are preparing to be with your families for tomorrow. It's the best day of the year!

Now, onto my Christmas gift. Our late weekend storm. Once again, this one is a forecasters nightmare. Now, I am not yet trained in the art of meteorology just yet, but I know enough to read some basic model maps and those models have been pretty much useless so far this winter.

This winter has been particularly difficult for all of our long range models to come into agreement on several systems. Why is this happening? I have no idea and no one does right now. I am sure the NWS will study this and give us an answer when it doesn't mean much to us.

For now, our sights should be set to the sky for Santa and then to the west and south for the beginnings of our storm. For snow lovers, you are hoping that the little piece of energy moving through the upper mid west "phases" or merges with the piece of energy over Texas that is the remnants of the last soaking storm to drench southern California.

This phasing is key. It will allow the northern jet stream and southern jet stream to merge and thus feed our storm some much needed moisture from the gulf AND tilt the upper level winds to a direction running parallel to the east coast.

The models have not come to any agreement on when if at all this phasing happens. It means everything to the track of the storm and the intensity. BUT we are starting to see a little bit of a trend. That trend brings heavy snow to SNE, overnight Sunday into early Monday. It misses the rest of the big east coast cities but nails the Boston area. QPF totals show a storm total of 0.75-1.25 inches spread over the area. Right now that would translate to a wide spread 6-12 inches with very gusty winds Sunday night.

This is likely to change. The next big model run is the GFS at 10:30. After that it is the EURO at 1am. Stay tuned!

Storm likelyhood just got better

Latest GFS shows a big hit for us. Watch out late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

That snowfall was a long time coming

Boston's official snowfall total yesterday was 2.6 inches. In West Roxbury, I saw a good 4 inches on the ground. If it felt like we hadn't seen any snow in a long time, that feeling was correct.

-December 20th marks the latest date for the first measurable snowfall since January of 2000.

- Yesterdays snow broke a streak of 303 days without at least and inch of snow for Boston. The longest such stretch since we went 310 days in 2002.

So the numbers don't lie. We were well overdue.

So Maybe This Storm Didn't Miss Us Completely

Read it and weep. Or in my case rejoice. There was no lie about how big this storm was and it is showing us that strength in the form of some really heavy snow bands that have been rotating in off the ocean, specifically over Cape Cod. Down there, expect over a foot of snow with some strong wind gusts.

So what went wrong? That's what I have heard all day and will probably hear tomorrow. There really isn't a straight answer to that. This storm was huge. And it also stalled out. Both of those things were predicted. What wasn't predicted was just how heavy those snow bands became throughout the day today. This one missed us by over 300 miles and still dropped a foot of snow over some parts. That is one strong monster. Just think if it was a direct hit.


We may not be out of the woods just yet. Tuesday and Wednesday look unsettled as more snow showers are likely. From the same storm!

So long storm 1

Almost one year ago to the day, we were bracing for our first blizzard of winter. Ultimately, the mid-Atlantic got the jackpot, with DC, Baltimore and Philly saw almost two feet of snow. We got about 10, but that's more than we will get from the storm that is about to miss us.

Last year, we ended up with 15 inches of snow in December. As of now, we don't even have a trace! Almost 1 month overdue from our first average snowfall. Those are the breaks I guess. It certainly has been cold enough and that won't change.

In the days leading up to Christmas, we will be dealing with annoying light snow that will likely not even accumulate. Map below shows the movement of our teaser storm out in the ocean. Those incraments are 12 hours and you will notice that the storm doesn't move much the next few days, actually stalling out. Just makes it more bitter sweet. This would have been a big one had it not moved east.

Not to worry! There is the possibility of another winter storm on Christmas night! The stormy pattern won't change this week and you knew it was only a matter of time before another one took a shot at us. This one looks less complicated than the first storm. There is already model agreement, but that means nothing days out.

Snow on Christmas is a nice thought though.

We are losing our big storm by the hour

The scenario seemed almost too good to be true. Polar High shifting the the west, thus lifting our storm blocking pattern. Large Low pressure system feeding into gulf moisture and then riding up the suddenly very ampliphed jet stream. Storm stalling out right off Massachusettes coast, throwing heavy snow and wind into SNE for several hours. It was suppose to be our perfect storm. And now it won't happen.

Models are comming into agreement with each run. As is the case with most of these storms, two seperate storms turn into one big one, usually right around the NC coast. Not this time. Our second guy is late to the party. Add that to an offshore track and what we have is a dud. Two semi strong storms, tracking away from the coast and then getting stuck offshore and blossoming into a big storm.

What it likely means is a long period of light snow starting late Sunday night and lasting into early Tuesday. We call this a big tease.

Still time to change this forecast, and I hope it does change. But reasoning has to trump desire here. Look for all local weather guys and gals to have a tough time forecasting this one. One slight change to timing or path can GREATLY affect the outcome. None of them want to get caught in a situation like last year where everything shut down and nothing came. I have already seen more caution with all forecasts. It appears as if that caution will win out.

New Model Comparisons

I wish I could take credit for this great graphic, but it came from http://www.southernnewenglandweather.com/, which is a great site I just found yesterday.



Anyways, these are the 7 major models that are considered when forecasting this storm. Notice the wide range of paths even just over 3 days out. These will eventually start to look alike and that will likely be the path of the storm. Regardless of path, the storm is going to slow down significantly on Monday into Tuesday, quite possibly even stalling out. A rare occurrence for these storms but rest assured, if it is a direct hit, we are talking a long duration event with a high snowfall totals.

Nor Easter Glamour

So people, this is what it is all about. As a weather nerd, nothing and I mean nothing, compares to the buildup before a potential blockbuster snowstorm. Forget hurricanes, tornadoes and flash floods. This is where the excitement lies. It's like the buildup to the NFL draft! So much anticipation and excitement. And we all feel it, one way or another. Even the naysayers of winter, the ones who publicly wish for no snow this winter, secretly get excited for big snowstorm. If for nothing else than to have something to complain about. There is nothing like it.

Northeast snow storms have the potential to drop several feet of snow on major cities at any point in the winter. Outside of mountain storms or lake effect storms, no other area experiences anything close on such a regular basis. Need some proof? Just look at Minneapolis this past week. A modest 17 inches of snow fell in that area and caused chaos, highlighted by the freak collapse of the Metrodome. No one would ever accuse a resident of Minnesota of not being used to snow, but 17 inches in 24 hours? Just doesn't happen very often there.

I won't go so far as to call us lucky, but I will point out the uniqueness. For a region that often defines itself by its harsh weather, blockbuster snowstorms remain at the top for anticipation, drastically felt effects and everyone's favorite, bust potential. This next potential snowstorm is no different. Add to it the fact that it is the first storm of the year and would fall less than a week before Christmas and we are talking about one big attention grabbing storm.

Hit or miss, enjoy this feeling while it lasts people. It is often the best part about these things. The outcome very rarely meets the anticipation. And of course, even weather nerds hate shoveling.

Responding to Demands

Yes Michelle, here is your promised post. Between finals, work, Christmas and girlfriend car buying, December has been a busy month for your favorite weather blogger. Not to worry though, I am squeezing this post in between a late mac and cheese dinner and my duties as a warm blanket for a very whiny girl who is cold in bed.

So the storm chatter is heating up! But it won't heat up our temps. Another really cold day is in store tomorrow. High temps in the low 20's is just too cold for December. Remember, we aren't even into winter yet technically. And despite our below average temps for the past few weeks, we remain snow less. I think people are secretly desiring it despite what they say. The past two years, we have had a hot start to the snow fall season, with right around 20 inches falling in December. This year, nothing. Don't be fooled by these weak snow showers tonight and tomorrow night. They mean nothing.

But Sunday? Well that will mean something. Finally, a classic storm seems to be setting up for us. A low pressure system will form deep in the gulf of mexico and draw some of that moisture laden air from the gulf to form a pretty potent storm overnight on Thursday. You know the rest. That storm will track up the coast and redevelop into a stronger storm over the weekend. As you have been told dozens of times before, track means everything. There is no doubt that cold air will be in place. What is in doubt is how close the storm gets to us, when it gets to us and the new concern of will the storm be TOO strong and draw some of that warm (relatively speaking) air from the Atlantic and change us to rain along the coast.

The fact is, even the guys that get paid to do this for a living don't know. Anyone with any knowledge of weather will tell you that there is just too much time between now and the storm. Many things can change. Unfortunately, the weathermen on tv and other news outlets are forced to talk about it early because it is a potential big news story. But I bet if they had their choice, they would not mention it at all.

That being said, we all will have a better idea come Friday. That is when you will hear from me next. As it stands right now, a storm of some sort looks likely on Sunday. At least it will make for an interesting Pats game Sunday night.

Now off to bed!

December is Good For the Moaning

We are not even into the actual winter yet and I have already lost one glove, thus making my other glove useless. I appear to be continuing my streak of losing important items in 2010 (see 2 pairs of expensive sunglasses gone).

It's too bad really because I am going to need those gloves in the coming days and weeks really. Plans to keep our apartment heat off until absolute necessity forces us otherwise has already failed. How do you not turn on the heat when the temperature bottoms out at 17 degrees overnight? Yes, 17 degrees and we aren't even at double digits yet for the monthly dates. For those of you keeping track, that is a good 13 degrees below our normal LOW temperature for this date. Ouch.

So there has to be an upside to all of this recent cold weather right? Wrong. People like me feel cold and want snow. As per usual, I will not get what I want.

Our little clipper storm that was potentially going to drop a quick 1-3 inches on us tomorrow night will actually be completely dried up by our unseasonably cold air. That's strike 1 for this cold. That big storm I briefly mentioned (or did not mention, I am too lazy to look) early this week is actually going to be "blocked" by our cold high pressure to the north and move up the Hudson Valley, in the process giving the Midwest a killer early season snow storm. We get rain. Heavy rain. And a brief warm up to 50 degrees on Sunday and Monday. Strike 2. After Monday, (almost reminiscent of an uninvited guest inviting themselves over again immediately after they just left), we get a bigger blast of cold air. And this time it will be REALLY cold. I am talking high tempertaures in the low 20's with overnight lows in the single digits to even below 0. And whats on tap storm wise for next week? Nothing. Just dry, cold, windy air. Strike 3.

Yes It is Cold

You have probably heard that from a lot of people the past few days. And you know what? They are correct. Temperatures are going to be averaging a good 5-10 degrees below normal for the next week or so. This is not what early December should feel like. In fact, this is what mid January feels like. The culprit? Take a look for yourself below. 500mb temperatures are readings from a few thousand feet up in the atmosphere but it is a crucial number since this is where all of our steering patterns, aka jet stream, reside.

It doesn't take a genius to see that a cold pool of air is just sitting over the northeast and it won't move for the next 5 days. During that period, expect just cold but sunny conditions for us here in the Boston area. Northern New England is going to get hit with a fairly potent early season snow storm, one that is actually backing into the gulf of Maine moving east to west! Ski areas will be happy for sure. Below is the expected snowfall totals, including totals from lake effect snow which will also be very active this week.

Our weather pattern gets a bit more active towards Friday night. A small little clipper system will move in during this period and could drop a quick 1-3 inches of snow over our area, with higher amounts likely in some areas. No consensus yet on how if any impact there will be but with such a strong cold air mass in place, snowfall is likely to happen at some point. Right now Friday night looks like the best shot. These clipper storms move very fast so there is no time for intensification. Anything more than a few inches of snow would be surprising.

Stay tuned and stay warm!