High School Reunions and Still No Winter

First off, I would like to say again how awesome it was to see everyone at the BLS 10 year reunion this past Saturday night. I had a great time and it just reconfirms to me that despite Latin being a hardass school with questionable motivational tactics, the people I met there remain the best part about the school. I woudn't trade those relationships for anything.


Ok, now onto the weather! Or really, the lack of weather. November continues to remain extremely warm. We have had 12 days of 60 degree weather, making this the 2nd warmest November on record with temps running an average 5.4 degrees above normal. Interstingly enough, we likely won't top the warmest November on record, 1975, which had temps running over 7 degrees warmer than average!


One thing that is noteable about the top 5 warmest Novembers, including our current month, is the lack of snowfall for the remainder of the winter. I am starting to believe this winter will be no different.


So why the lack of cold air? To make a food reference (since Thanksgiving did just pass) we are missing some key ingredients.


1.) The Greenland Block -



This is a crucial piece to maintaining cold air over the east coast. As you can see from the image to the right, a typical high pressure over Greenland sets up a blocking pattern in the Northern Atlantic, allowing cold air that has been building up over the Hudson Bay to move south and stay locked in for several days. This whole process is part of a bigger process called the North Atlantic Oscillation but I won't get into that as it is confusing and boring to read about. Just know this, no Greenland High means that cold air may come and go, but it won't stay for more than a day or two.

2. Irregular Jet Stream- You should know that the jet stream is what drives our weather and air masses. If you have been watching the news over the past month, you probably have heard about other abnormal weather occurances happening all over the country. This is due to an irregular pattern for the fall. This image is a good visualization of what is refered to as a negative PNA which has been our reality for many weeks. The Northwest and even California are contiually being pounded by storms while we here in the Northeast have been tapping into the warm Gulf temperatures, keeping us unseasonably warm and dry.

Of course, there are other factors that play into this. A weaker than predicted La Nina is the likely culprit of this abnormal set. What this has led to is a very progressive and warm atmosphere for us. Storms and air masses have been moving very quickly, followed by strong winds the day after. But in between, we continually see west to south west flows with 50-60 degree readings and sunny skies.

Eventually, normal climate impacts will take over. The core of warm air we have been tapping into will get weaker and the cold air building in Canada will get stronger. Our days get shorter and there will be less oppurtunity to warm up during the daytime. I doubt we will be seeing 60 degree readings in January, but one thing that does seem to be sticking around is the lack of any blocking pattern.


The abnormal (netative PNA) jet stream set up is showing signs of breaking down over the next few weeks, which should allow colder air to "break away" and move into our area. But with no blocking in place, our atmosphere remains very progessive. Typically this will mean more seasonable weather but no big storms.

Regardless of the reasons, I know everyone is enjoying this warm weather. Even I am liking it, despite my love of big snow storms but I would be lying if I said that I didn't want a nice 2 foot snow storm for Christmas!

Where has the cold air gone?

You may have noticed that something is missing. It's not obvious at first. It even took me until yesterday to figure it out. It was just after 8:30am and I was outside, with no coat on and felt very comfortable. 8:30 in the morning on November 13th should not be short sleeve weather.

Take a look around and you will see the wardrobe malfunctions too. They are very typical of seasonal transition times. The jerk who wears shorts on the first 70 degree day in April only to be freezing once the sun goes down and the temperature drops back into the 30's. Or what about those borderline warm days near the end of a (typical) fall? I see a lot of people, mainly bro's, who head out in jeans, short sleeves and no coat, only to find out that even though the temperature says 58, the strong winds actually make it feel like it is in the 40's.

But these days, its just the opposite. Yesterday morning, I saw many people wearing heavy coats and even gloves! Its like we are all kids in a classroom hoping the teacher forgets to assign homework. We know it should be cold. We expect it to be cold. But everyone is hoping that perhaps old man winter forgot to put New England on his to do list this year.

As I write this, Boston's temperature is 56 degrees at 9:00 pm on November 14th. Our normal HIGH temperature for this date is 45. And it has been this way for pretty much all of Autumn. Average temperatures have been running a good 4-6 degrees above average up and down the East Coast for weeks. This was the 8th warmest October on record! And not only that, we have been relatively dry and storm free. Outside of our Halloween snowstorm, our area has had several long stretches of dry weather, including a 10 day stretch that ended last Thursday. Dry and Warm? In a New England fall? You might get one or the other but both together for this long of a period is unusual.

So, just where is all of our typical Fall temperatures? MIA. Well, really they are just stuck in the Arctic. There is plenty of it up there, believe me. It just so happens that the forces at be are currently keeping the cold air stuck in the Arctic and more importantly, stuck high in the atmosphere.

Nothing is going to change through Thanksgiving. We have hit 60 degrees 8 times already in November and at least 2 more are in store in the next 7 days.

But we all know. The other shoe will drop eventually. Pattern changes appear to be coming by the end of the month and once the door is open for that cold air, it won't fully close until April.