For about 4 or 5 days now, the European model guidance (which they don't provide for free like our National Weather Service does with our models) has been continuously predicting a very strong coastal low to impact New England with heavy snow this weekend.
No one who pays attention to these models believed it. Every other model kept us dry and sunny. But the weekend kept getting closer and the Euro kept showing the same storm over and over again in a shockingly consistent manner. We all know the weather changes on a dime and predicting what will happen even 24 hours in the future can be near impossible at times. But the Euro has been so god damn consistent all week that its snow storm idea kept becoming more and more plausible.
Now here we are, about 24 hours away from what could be considered the zero hour and we come to find out that the Euro was right all along. Even as I type this it doesn't seem real but tomorrow night, we will be in the middle of an all out blizzard.
There is so much to talk about, I don't even know where to begin. Lets focus on some startling facts first.
Monthly snow total record for Boston in October - 1.2 inches
Amount of nights under 32 degrees in Boston this year - 1(last night was the first time we went below freezing)
Deviation in average high temperature in Boston this month - + 6 degrees
I could go on like this but I think you get the point. The freaking leaves haven't even fallen off the trees yet! All of this adds up to what is a remarkably UNIQUE situation that we all need to start getting prepared for, regardless if we find it hard to believe or not.
I will post a more technical piece later on the "perfect" set up for this October blizzard, and I do mean perfect. Even more perfect than the infamous "Perfect Storm" in 1991. Perhaps George Clooney will be making a movie on this event one day.
Anyways, here are the details....
- Storm time line is from about 7pm tomorrow night till 7am Sunday morning.
- VERY strong wind gusts could peak close to and above tropical storm force at times
- Biggest issue and I do mean BIGGEST issue is power outages. It is going to get bad. Heavy wet snow combined with leaves on the trees and strong wind gusts is a terrible combination. I would advise people to get generators and batteries now.
- Snowfall totals are very hard to make a call on right now. There is not much of a precedent for this type of storm this early in the season. Where it stays all snow, in central/western Mass, southwest NH and interior CT, I can easily see 6-12 inches of heavy snow piling up. The coastal plain is impossible to predict. It is all about wind direction. Any east or northeast wind blowing off the 58 degree water (it is still October!) will warm Boston and any area 30 miles within the coast to the lower 40s. But once that wind direction changes to the North, and it will overnight, temps will drop everywhere and we will all turn to snow.
- Coastal flooding should be a concern. Tides are running very high right now and once this storm gets past Long Island, it looks like it is going to "bomb out" or get very very strong in a matter of hours. In fact, the predicted pressure level of the storm will put it on par with strong tropical storm or a weak hurricane in terms of intensity.
That is all I have for now. News of this will gradually leak out, especially once people get out of work. I know it seems like a joke ( I thought it was a joke for a whole week now) but take this storm seriously!
