If you have been outside at all today, you certainly noticed how windy it has been all day. In the past few hours, those wind gusts have increases in intensity, with several locations in Eastern MA reporting gusts in the range of 45-55 mph. Powerful enough to knock down some trees and power lines. Reports of power outages in eastern NY and western CT have been on the rise all afternoon.
All of this wind is in advance of a strong cold front that has extended from a parent Low pressure system over the Great Lakes. This Low will continue to grow stronger overnight, aided by a convergence of the Northern and Southern jet streams, feeding tropical moisture into our region. This same "phasing" of jet steams is what gives us big snowstorms in the winter!
But alas, no snow with this one. Here are the highlights.
- Strong winds and wind gusts continue into the morning. Scattered power outages and moderate wind damage is expected with gusts upwards of 50-60 mph.
- Severe thunderstorms are also a possibility. Main treats with these include damaging straight line winds. Just above the surface, there is some REALLY strong wind gusts. Some of these gusts could get mixed down to the surface as heavy rainfall develops over the next few hours.
- Rain. And lots of it. This front is loaded with moisture and will drop a good 1.5-2.5 inches of rainfall over Eastern MA in the next 8 hours. This will lead to some urban flooding. Heavy rain hits Boston between 11-midnight. This is also the best time frame for any severe weather.
- Luckily, this front is a fast mover. Earlier indications showed the front becoming stalled out near Cape Cod on Wednesday, wedged between the Low in the Great Lakes and the High over the Atlantic. But that does not appear to be the case anymore. Tomorrow morning will feature some left over showers and will still be breezy. Although nowhere close to the wind gusts we will see tonight. From there, gradual clearing is expected and maybe even some peaks of sunshine before the day is all done!
Keep an eye on the news for any severe thunderstorm warnings over the next few hours and bring all lawn furniture and other light objects in before the rain hits!
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Thursday, September 6, 2012
More Trouble for the Gulf?
Issac may not be done with the Gulf Coast just yet. Over the last week, the remnants of Issac were stationary over the Midwest before a strong cold front pushed the former Hurricane off to the east, resulting in the rainy and humid conditions we saw over the past 2 days.
Interestingly enough, a piece of what was Issac also broke off from the main portion of the storm circulation and moved southeast towards Alabama and has since moved offshore and over the Gulf waters.
Looking at the satellite image above, you can see that this cluster of thunderstorms is not very organized. And in fact, there is significant wind sheer (poison to hurricanes) as well as loads of dry air all around the disturbance. In addition, the passage of Issac last week sucked up a tremendous amount of cold water from lower depths of the Gulf, which has resulted in much cooler surface water temperatures. All of these factors suggests that this former piece of Issac won't develop into much over the next 24 hours or so, but after that, conditions become much more favorable for intensification.
A strong low pressure over the East coast (which will make Saturday a wet one for us) will push this system off to the southwest by the weekend and the NHC anticipates that this is when a tropical depression or even tropical storm will develop. They put that possibility at 40% right now but that percentage is likely to increase.
This storm won't be a big one and certainly not a big wind producer but it does promise to bring another dose of heavy rain to an area that does not need any more precipitation. As of this moment, it looks like the Florida panhandle is under the gun come Sunday into Monday but as with anything in the tropics, the situation bears watching!
Elsewhere in the tropics, Leslie continues to sit and spin southwest of Bermuda. Little intensification or movement is expected over the next 48 hours but once that East Coast disturbance moves off shore by Sunday, Leslie will get a kick in the ass and start accelerating to the north and then to the northeast, making a very close pass to Bermuda as a Cat 1/2 and ultimately making landfall somewhere near Nova Scotia next week.
Hurricane Michael, wayyyyyyy out in the middle of the Atlantic is the first major hurricane of the season. Currently a cat 3 with winds of 115mph, Michale sure looks pretty on satellite imagery but he won't make any threat to land.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Welcome Back!
It's welcome back time here at NE Weather Rants! I had big plans to write 3-4 blog posts a week over the summer. You can see how well that went. No matter, its a new month, a new school year and shit is about to pop off! Alright, that was a little too much excitement.
What better day to start blogging again than a rainy and muggy day? Honestly, we have nothing to complain about in the weather department here in the Northeast. We have enjoyed a BEAUTIFUL stretch of weather. From August 19th - September 3rd, we had sunshine and temperatures in the 70-80 degree range for 15 of 16 days. With some real gorgeous days mixed in there as well. You couldn't have asked for a better and more comfortable stretch of weather to end the summer. So today and tomorrows rain shouldn't dampen your spirits too much.
As for that rain, most of the shower activity for today will begin to tamper off as the afternoon rolls along. You may have noticed that the air is much stickier today, you can thank our dearly departed friend Issac for that. After drenching the Gulf Coast last week, Issac moved into the Ohio River Valley and essentially spun himself out for the last 4 days. A strong cold front pushing south through the mid-west finally got whats left of Issac moving again, which is what we are dealing with over the next 18-24 hours. Tropical air, and tropical downpours. All without the ambiance of a tropical setting with fruity drinks. You can see from the QPF image below that most of the heavy rainfall will stay over Northern New England. Much of that heavy rainfall will occur very early tomorrow morning, which should make for a nice 1st back to school commute of the year. Expect heavy rainfall in the Boston area from 5-10AM with slow clearing and isolated downpours after that.
But enough of that talk of rainfall for now. Lets talk tropics! Take a look at the spaghetti plot for potential tracks of TS Leslie.
Leslie is a funny little storm. She is going to get caught in between strong High pressure over the central Atlantic and a somewhat inverted Northern Hemisphere jet stream to here west.
This will cause her to sit and spin in place just to the south of Bermuda for a few days, while intensifying to a category 2 storm. You can see that once she does get moving, she makes a close pass to New England, but not close enough for any real effects. Except of course for some pretty high surf. Take a look at this predicted wave height model for the East Coast as Leslie makes her pass on Sunday/Monday. Expect seas as high as 12 feet off shore with some coastal beach erosion likely all weekend.
What better day to start blogging again than a rainy and muggy day? Honestly, we have nothing to complain about in the weather department here in the Northeast. We have enjoyed a BEAUTIFUL stretch of weather. From August 19th - September 3rd, we had sunshine and temperatures in the 70-80 degree range for 15 of 16 days. With some real gorgeous days mixed in there as well. You couldn't have asked for a better and more comfortable stretch of weather to end the summer. So today and tomorrows rain shouldn't dampen your spirits too much.
As for that rain, most of the shower activity for today will begin to tamper off as the afternoon rolls along. You may have noticed that the air is much stickier today, you can thank our dearly departed friend Issac for that. After drenching the Gulf Coast last week, Issac moved into the Ohio River Valley and essentially spun himself out for the last 4 days. A strong cold front pushing south through the mid-west finally got whats left of Issac moving again, which is what we are dealing with over the next 18-24 hours. Tropical air, and tropical downpours. All without the ambiance of a tropical setting with fruity drinks. You can see from the QPF image below that most of the heavy rainfall will stay over Northern New England. Much of that heavy rainfall will occur very early tomorrow morning, which should make for a nice 1st back to school commute of the year. Expect heavy rainfall in the Boston area from 5-10AM with slow clearing and isolated downpours after that.
But enough of that talk of rainfall for now. Lets talk tropics! Take a look at the spaghetti plot for potential tracks of TS Leslie.Leslie is a funny little storm. She is going to get caught in between strong High pressure over the central Atlantic and a somewhat inverted Northern Hemisphere jet stream to here west.
This will cause her to sit and spin in place just to the south of Bermuda for a few days, while intensifying to a category 2 storm. You can see that once she does get moving, she makes a close pass to New England, but not close enough for any real effects. Except of course for some pretty high surf. Take a look at this predicted wave height model for the East Coast as Leslie makes her pass on Sunday/Monday. Expect seas as high as 12 feet off shore with some coastal beach erosion likely all weekend.
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