February Winter Storm: Wha Happened!?

So obviously this past winter storm was a bust, so what happened? The simple explanation is that the air at the surface was just too warm. The east wind blowing off the relatively warmer ocean kept most of eastern Massachusetts above freezing for the majority of the day, but this was hardly sole factor.

Both this storm and the last storm were very tricky to forecast. Although they were both strong with lots of moisture, they both contained a very sharp cut off from heavy snow to almost no snow. Usually, it is pretty easy to generalize snow totals for large areas, but not with these past two storms. The track and location of the heavy snow bands meant everything. The cut off from heavy snow to almost no snow was as small as 10 miles. Even with the sophisticated forecasting tools that meteorologists have these days, it is nearly impossible to predict where these heavy snow bands will set up. Again, usually its not a big deal. On snow total maps, you see something like 6-10 inches with locally up to 1 foot. That locally up to 1 foot is where the heavy bands set up. The difference from 6 inches to 12 inches is much more forgivable than the difference from no snow to 10 inches but such was the case in this storm.

Naturally, the public cries fowl, but what can you do? Meteorology is no perfect science and the atmosphere is more complicated than anyone can even imagine. Storms such as these really should not even be tied to snow total forecasts, but the public demands to know how much will fall, so they are necessary. This is compounded even more so by the fact that most people get their forecasts from the local news. And of course the news doesn't overreact to things, right?

Basically, the storm totals, the school closings, the early releases and everything else that was overblown in this case should be forgivable. People like to accuse meteorologists of being wrong half of the time but that is not nearly true. Think of how many forecasts have been dead on in the past year. Storms, especially winter storms are very complicated. So lay off the bitching and moaning. Or at least refrain from bitching to me.