Forecasting discussions and general weather musings from a Boston based meteorology student.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Enjoy the Sun today.
Because you won't see it again until possibly next Sunday.
As I mentioned yesterday, we are in for a very stormy week. The northern jet stream is essentially going to be in a traffic jam from tomorrow through Saturday due to a huge blocking pattern in the North Atlantic. This allows for an upper level low, or a storm that is very high up in our atmosphere, to get stuck over the Great Lakes and act as a "conveyor belt" for storms to develop on the east coast and get pushed up to New England.
What does this mean for us? Well, tomorrow we get storm 1 of 2 this week. This one will be messy but it really should be all rain for everyone inside of 495. The reasoning this time is not so much because of the track, because the storm actually stays off shore. But the ocean temperatures this time of the year really start to affect what type of precipitation we get. As we get closer to spring, any sort of wind of the ocean (East wind) sets up whats refereed to as the maritime affect and creates an ocean warm front and pushes temps into the mid 30's. This will be the case for us tomorrow and on Wednesday.
The storm should start out as some light snow by the late morning but will change to all rain by the afternoon into the evening. As the sun goes down tomorrow night, we could see the cold air sneak back in and change us back to a light snow but it all goes back to rain for pretty much the whole region on Wednesday as the storm gets dragged back to the east by the upper level low, we get a big rush of warm air and heavy rain as well. Could be some localized flooding by wednesday night, especially in places around the Rt 2 area and in western Mass where there is likely to be a few inches of wet snow on the ground.
We get a break from Wednesday night into most of the day on Thursday but a more interesting and much stronger storm develops Thursday night into Friday and even Saturday. No consesus on this one yet, but it looks to have a lot more cold air involved than our storm from tomorrow. It looks like it will still be too warm along the coast for snow but inland areas and Northern New England could end up with a very big snow storm. The image in this blog is of the possible set up for Friday.
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