In case you are color blind, this latest NAM forecast map shows us getting 3-4 inches of rain in the next 24 hours. Yikes.
The model is most likely a little high on the totals, but 2 inches is a sure bet with higher amounts likely in many areas.
A look at the current Radar (http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php) and you can see what is on the way. Heavy rain has already forced a delay in an A10 basketball game in Atlantic City because the roof was leaking.
In any event, this storm is no joke. Sure its not a snowstorm and therefor not as sexy, but it is large, wet and is about to stall out right in our sweet spot, aka just of the Jersey coast. The jet steam is going to dip petty low in the atmosphere, meaning we are going to get some strong winds starting overnight and also meaning that the general flow of the atmosphere is going to stop and hence trap our storm from moving anywhere for the next 48 hours.
Rain is going to be heavy and winds will be strong. The rain totals for this storm are going to be ridiculous. As I said above, most models are calling for 3-4 inches of rain in 24 hours and 4-6 inches in 48 hours. Not sure how much we can believe this, but if the reality is anywhere close to this, expect some urban flooding (ie: huge puddles, basements flooding, roofs leaking). No matter where you live, this much rain in this little of a time period spells trouble.
Most people remember the May 2006 3 day storm where the North Shore received 8-15 inches of rain and had severe flooding. I don't think we will see that level of flooding but some areas could get about 8 inches of rain and most will see at least 3.
On a personal note, Andy and I are suppose to run the Ras 5K tomorrow. It is not going to be fun. At least this is the perfect weekend to work on a stupid Physics take home test.
Positive signs for the future. After this mess clears out by Tuesday, expect to see the sun and some pretty warm temps (upper 50's) for the remainder of next week.
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