Ladies and Gentlemen, The End is Near

So I apologize for my absence over the last few days. A combination of work, drinking and laziness generally are the reasons behind my lack of blogging. I have been getting some great feedback from people though and I love it so keep it up!

Some of that feedback centered around my post about a monster storm that was going to occur next Thursday. I have to admit that I was fueling the flames a bit on that one. Anything that is predicted 7 days out has a minimal chance of playing out the way it is predicted, however, I did have some basis for thinking this storm was and quite possibly still could happen.

Lets start with a quick explanation as to what has been going on this year. As most of you know, this year is classified as a La Nina winter. Simply put, La Nina is defined as cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean that impact global weather patterns.Below is an image of what a typical La Nina winter pattern looks like in the US.

A few things to note. Notice that the northern portion of the jet stream typically stays to our north and keeps the real arctic air away from our region and also keeping us in a milder and wetter pattern. Also notice the strong moisture flow from the pacific into the pacific northwest, a pattern that was verifying early in December if you can remember how much rain and snow Washington and Oregon were getting.

Now lets take a look at what has happened since around Christmas time.

See the difference? The northern branch of the jet stream has shifted further south and at times has "phased" with the southern jet stream to tap into warm gulf moisture and create large winter storms that have continued to hit us over and over again. Another big difference is the cold air. Cold air has essentially been locked in over our heads for the last 40 days. This is one of the big reasons as to why we have had no melting and have large snow piles all over the place.

Obviously, this is a very quick rundown of our winter pattern this year and there are much more integrate things going on here that are playing into our very snowy 2011. However, I bring this point up to illustrate a bigger point. The end is near.

All signs point to a very large pattern change beginning next week and lasting quite possibly for the remainder of the winter. No image to show this right now but here are the 3 major points.

1. Storms will come from the West now instead of the south.
2. The south storms will move west of the coast providing bigger snows for inland areas.
3. The cold air is losing the battle with the warm air.

But of course, before this happens, we need a large storm to signal the shift in patterns. That storm still looks to happen on Thursday. Now, just because the storm will exist does not mean that it will hit us or even if it hits us, it does not mean that it will be all snow.

One thing is certain though. Expect warmer temperatures for the rest of the month starting next weekend. Let the melting and the march towards spring commence!