Winter! Where Have You Gone??

Sun! Warm Temps!! We all must be dreaming. But fear not my friends, we could not be closer to reality. Welcome to 2011's version of winter halftime. These "thaws" are not uncommon, in fact, we usually have one much earlier than mid February. The lack of one this year is the reason for those huge snow piles.

Speaking of those snow piles, expect big melting to continue through today. Temperatures near or above 60 degrees for two straight days will put a big dent in the snow cover but it will not melt everything. That should re enforce the idea of just how much damn snow we had on the ground!

Of course, we know that these thaws do not last. We are entering the "battle zone month" of March, where we can see some pretty extreme temperature and weather swings in just a matter of hours. Many people are asking me if this is it for snowfall for the rest of the winter. I obviously do not know the answer to that but my gut feeling combined with NWS 2 week projections tell me no.

One thing we know about late winter into early spring is that there is a constant tug of war between warm air building in the south and increasing in strength with a stronger sun angle and longer days and retreating cold air which will take a while to moderate and very often does not give way to its warm friend very smoothly.

Where the battle lines are is where you will find storms. In fact, these late winter storms can be very strong. In general, the bigger the difference in air mass temperature, the stronger a storm will be.

In the past few weeks, we have benefited from a blocking high pressure to our north that has kept us cold (except for yesterday and today) but more importantly has kept us out of the path of storms. This will begin to change starting next week and this will mark the beginning of the battle between winter and spring. Want proof? Look at the recent temps in DC and Philly. Near or above 70! Geographically speaking, those two cities are not that far from us but those temperatures are quite warmer than anything we will see for a while. The warm air is making its push.

As for forecasting the rest of winter, your guess is probably as good as mine. One thing we must look at is recent climate. For 6+ weeks, we were in the line of fire of significant winter storms. These storms have not stopped being produced, we have just been shielded from them. I have to think that this will change.

Therefor, I DO expect one more snow storm for our area at some point between next week and mid March. It is very likely that the storm will not be all snow for everyone. Coastal areas usually get mixed or rain in these late season storms. But inland areas can get some heavy wet snow. Again, I have no actual proof of this happening, I am just using my weather logic to make and educated guess!

And besides, you couldn't think that mother nature could just drop 70 inches of snow in 1 month and then leave us high and dry for the rest of winter, do you?