So I admit it. The thought of a late season snowstorm on the first day of April got me very excited. Thoughts of 1997 were dancing in my head. I was imagining heavy snowfall rates, isolated 2 foot totals and a perfect wrap to a very disjointed winter. I may have gotten a little ahead of myself.
For those dedicated dozen regular readers (yes i counted mom twice) you know that I try to stay away from the heavy scientific explanations but sometimes this means I ignore the science side of forecasting a little too much.
Snow on April 1st? Sure its been done but it is no easy feat for mother nature to accomplish. And in rare situations like this, it is best to deal with two categories: what we know and what we don't know.
What we know
- A recent pattern change has allowed for several coastal low pressures to develop and take a run up the east coast.
-Storm 1 is in the gulf of mexico as we speak, bringing severe weather and drenching rains to the southeast. This storm will redevelop (as per usual) off the south carolina coast but will move much too far south to affect us. We are being protected by a blocking high pressure system to our east.
- A second storm will develop in nearly the exact same spot as storm 1 but this time will be allowed to ride up the coast as our high pressure moves further off shore. As it redevelops over water, it will pick up strength and moisture and intensify ever more as it collides with a pretty cold late March air mass that has been stubbornly sitting over us for a week. This battle ground of cold and warm air is very key.
- Our second storm will be strong with high winds and plenty of moisture. These early spring storms always have a lot of moisture. Remember our 14 inch rainfall in the last two weeks of March last year? Thursday night into Friday is the timeline.
What we don't know
- Track. I know you hear how important a storms track is all winter long but it is even that much more important in early spring storms. The exact track of the low pressure will determine who gets 15 inches of wet snow and who gets 1.5 inches of rain.
- That being said, the computer models used to forecast these storms are having a tough time with the placement of the storm track. This storm will be strong enough to pull in cold air for snowfall development. As you have heard before, the further the storm tracks to the east, the more that cold air will be wrapped into the region allowing for a widespread snowfall. Current models show the storm tracking over cape cod, bringing heavy snow west of 128 but drenching rain east of there.
- Coastal front set up. With such temperature differences in place, wind direction plays an important factor. You hear about coastal fronts when we talk about sea breezes keeping temperatures down in the summer. The same thing happens year round except this time, the wind off the water will keep coastal areas warmer.
- Amounts. No way of knowing. A recent snowfall projection map put out by the NWS in Taunton shows central and western Mass getting over a foot of snow while Boston gets all rain and then a late inch of snow as the storm passes. I would expect this to change several times before tomorrow night. There is just no solid way of predicting where the 32 degree line will be.
So that is it in a nutshell right now. I know there probably wasn't much information in here that you didn't already know but its a wait and see approach with this storm. We almost have to literally wait for the storm to be on our doorstep before any honest snowfall/rainfall totals can be forecast. I will keep you updated!
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