A massive energy change is currently going on in the Pacific, breaking down the immense upper level ridge that has been sitting over Alaska for several weeks. This breakdown will have big impacts on the weather over the Continental US this week.
A piece of energy originating over the west coast of British Columbia will dive south eastward towards the Gulf over the next 72 hours. The upper level feature is expected to become tilted, but not phase with the northern jet stream, which may limit the intensity somewhat. In response to the upper level dynamics, a strong surface wave will form of the SE coast on Wednesday and will move up the East Coast, bringing wintry weather from Atlanta all the way to Maine.
Some initial thoughts at 4 days out:
- Storm track far from certain. Ensembles are showing a westward track trend which would likely mean heavy wet snow for some and a mixed bag for others.
- Precipitation type will be a big question. Cold air won't be as readily available for this storm and with a trend towards a coastal hugger, areas in eastern MA could easily changeover at some point in the storm.
- Timing looks to be late Thursday morning into Friday morning. Will have to wait at least 48 hours to get an idea on storm track before posting potential snowfall numbers. 6+ inches very likely for areas outside of 495 with the coastal areas having the most questions at the moment.
In any event, prepare for some disruption come Thursday.
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