Monday, February 17, 2014

More Snow Tomorrow, Then Some Relief!

Is it spring yet? I am sure that's what most of us are thinking after our particularly snowy February. Officially speaking, Boston has received 20 inches of snow this month, nearly half of our average seasonal total of 43 inches! In between all of the snow, it has been cold, resulting in some large snow banks that have barely melted. All 17 days this month have had minimum temperatures below 32 degrees.

So should I talk about the mild air we are expecting later this week? Of course not! Before we get to that warm up, we have one more snow event to get through. This will be the 3rd snow event to effect us in less than a week, and all of these storms have been quite dynamic and difficult to forecast.

Tomorrow's storm is much weaker than the previous two, resembling more of an Alberta Clipper than a coastal nor'easter. Nevertheless, we are once again dealing with a potent piece of energy that will redevelop into a secondary low right over our heads. Our air remains fairly primed for moisture growth and as such, some moderate to heavy snow will fall tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.

Quick redevelopment of a storm center is a pain to forecast!
The details:

- Snow starts from West to East sometime between 11am-1pm
- Evening commute will feel the worst impact, especially to the north and west of Boston. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inch per hour are likely in some spots. 
-Southeast flow at the surface will change the snow to rain/mix on the Cape and in the New Bedford area.
- Areas to the north and west of 95 will experience the heaviest snow, resulting in totals around 4-6 inches
-Boston may mix, especially in the early evening. Expecting 2-4 in the city.
- Quick hitter. All precipitation will be over by 10pm.

This is what the NWS is expecting for total snowfall. Notice the moderate snowfall totals in Middlesex county. As we know from this past weekend, these redeveloping events can be quite fickle, which means there remains a decent chance that these totals change again before the storm starts.

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